Environmental indivisibilities and information costs: fanaticism, agnosticism, and intellectual progress
This analysis suggests several distinctive policy recommendations about environmental problems. One is that some of the alarms about ecological catastrophes cannot simply be dismissed, even when some of those who sound the alarms seem almost fanatic. The information needed to be sure one way or another is simply lacking, and may not be attainable at reasonable cost for a long time. We are therefore left with inevitable risk. Ecological systems could also be incomparably more robust than the alarmists claim, so we might also be worrying needlessly. The implication for environmental and ecological research is that we should not exprect that it will produce conclusive information, but should fund a lot of it anyhow. If previous research has produced few compelling results, valid information about these problems is scarce and therefore more valuable. The harvest of research in the areas characterized by indivisibilities is then poor but precious knowledge. If it is important to be able to change behavior quickly, when and if we finally get the information that the ecosystem can't take any more, then it is important that we have the open-mindedness needed to change our views and policies the moment decisive information arrives. Those who shout wolf too often, and those who are sure there are no wolves around, could be our undoing.
- OSTI ID:
- 5333658
- Journal Information:
- Am. Econ. Rev.; (United States), Vol. 72:2
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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