A plane source model for seismic hazard analysis using geometrical source parameters
A plane source model for seismic risk analysis consistent with existing theories of earthquake mechanism and characteristics is developed. The model would consider earthquakes occurred because of a rupture plane developed and extended along geologic faults. Three types of idealized source models are used for modeling all conceivable seismic sources. The sensitivity of the seismic risk to several influencing factors is studied. The generalized renewal process is introduced for modeling the future occurrence of earthquakes, which incorporates the nonstationarity of the earthquake occurrence and provides information in terms of a conditional probability on the basis of the time of the previous earthquakes. A site in Downtown San Francisco is analyzed in detail to demonstrate the applicability of the model developed. The risk-based isoseismal contours corresponding to a specified annual exceedance probability is discussed, and a case study using Taiwan earthquake data is also demonstrated.
- Research Organization:
- Illinois Inst. of Tech., Chicago, IL (USA)
- OSTI ID:
- 5181555
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: Thesis (Ph. D.)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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