Modulation of fossil fuel production by global temperature variations, 2

Technical Report · Sat Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 1994

OSTI ID:5113120

Rust, B W; Crosby, F J

The report includes the inverse modulation of global fossil production by variations in Northern Hemispheric temperatures. The present study incorporates recent revisions and extensions of the fuel production record and uses a much improved temperature record. The authors show that the new data are consistent with the predictions of the original Rust-Kirk model which they then extend to allow for time lag between variations in the temperature and the corresponding responses in fuel production. The modulation enters the new model through the convolution of a lagged averaging function with the temperature time-series. The authors also include explicit terms to account for the perturbations caused by the Great Depression and World War II. The final model accounts for 99.84% of the total variance in the production record. This modulation represents a feedback which is consistent with the carbon dioxide problem; climate change; fossil fuel production; global warming Gaia hypothesis; temperature variations.

• Research Organization: National Inst. of Standards and Technology (CAML), Gaithersburg, MD (United States). Applied and Computational Mathematics Div.
• OSTI ID: 5113120
• Report Number(s): PB-94-146636/XAB; NISTIR-5332
• Resource Relation: Other Information: See also PB--83-182592
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT
02 PETROLEUM
03 NATURAL GAS
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
AMBIENT TEMPERATURE
VARIATIONS
CLIMATIC CHANGE
GLOBAL ANALYSIS
FOSSIL FUELS
PRODUCTION
PREDICTION EQUATIONS
ENERGY SOURCES
EQUATIONS
FUELS
MATHEMATICS
010900* - Coal
Lignite
& Peat- Environmental Aspects
020900 - Petroleum- Environmental Aspects
030800 - Natural Gas- Environmental Aspects
540120 - Environment
Atmospheric- Chemicals Monitoring & Transport- (1990-)