Some methodological and practical perspectives on severe-accident issue resolution
- Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, CA (United States)
Severe accidents involve intense multiphase interactions in highly complex and grossly evolving geometries, These processes can impact containment integrity in a variety of ways and to varying degrees of extent. When there is disagreement among experts about the magnitude of this impact and associated consequences, we have an {open_quotes}issue.{close_quotes} The appearance of such issues is a natural consequence of the complexity of the underlying long sequences, and their potential impact has been dramatized by NUREG-1150. Perhaps the nuclear field, especially through the severe-accident problem, has led the way, but the situation is similar in other aspects of human endeavor when we are asking to quantify risks in the absence of direct empirical evidence. Basically, one needs to make predictions on the basis of incomplete information, and the related use, and misuse, of expert opinion are well known. Issues that remain stubbornly unresolved for extended time spans are highly detrimental to public confidence regarding acceptability of the technology (or natural hazard) that give rise to them. On the other hand, when potential problems are not recognized, or when issues are artificially closed, this can lead to public mistrust about the {open_quote}keepers{close_quotes} of the technology as well - with a similar outcome. Worse, this can lead to damaging and unexpected consequences. Clearly, it is of major importance that potential problems are recognized and that issues are identified and resolved in a timely manner. But it is also extremely important that resolutions are robust.
- OSTI ID:
- 415815
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-951006-; ISSN 0003-018X; TRN: 96:005493-0192
- Journal Information:
- Transactions of the American Nuclear Society, Vol. 73; Conference: Winter meeting of the American Nuclear Society (ANS), San Francisco, CA (United States), 29 Oct - 1 Nov 1995; Other Information: PBD: 1995
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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