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Title: Heading off the permanent oil crisis

Abstract

The 1996 spike in gasoline prices was not a signal of any fundamental worldwide shortage of crude oil. But based on a review of many studies of recoverable crude oil that have been published since the 1950s, it looks as though such a shortfall is now within sight. With world demand for oil growing at 2 percent per year, global production is likely to peak between the years 2007 and 2014. As this time approaches, we can expect prices to rise markedly and, most likely, permanently. Policy changes are needed now to ease the transition to high-priced oil. Oil production will continue, though at a declining rate, for many decades after its peak, and there are enormous amounts of coal, oil sands, heavy oil, and oil shales worldwide that could be used to produce liquid or gaseous substitutes for crude oil, albeit at higher prices. But the facilities for making such synthetic fuels are costly to build and environmentally damaging to operate, and their use would substantially increase carbon dioxide emissions (compared to emissions from products made from conventional crude oil). This paper examines ways of heading of the impending oil crisis. 8 refs., 3 figs.

Authors:
 [1]
  1. World Resources Inst., Washington, DC (United States)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
380938
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Issues in Science and Technology
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 12; Journal Issue: 4; Other Information: PBD: Sum 1996
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING AND POLICY; PETROLEUM; PRODUCTION; PETROLEUM DEPOSITS; RESOURCES; ENHANCED RECOVERY; SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Citation Formats

MacKenzie, J J. Heading off the permanent oil crisis. United States: N. p., 1996. Web.
MacKenzie, J J. Heading off the permanent oil crisis. United States.
MacKenzie, J J. 1996. "Heading off the permanent oil crisis". United States.
@article{osti_380938,
title = {Heading off the permanent oil crisis},
author = {MacKenzie, J J},
abstractNote = {The 1996 spike in gasoline prices was not a signal of any fundamental worldwide shortage of crude oil. But based on a review of many studies of recoverable crude oil that have been published since the 1950s, it looks as though such a shortfall is now within sight. With world demand for oil growing at 2 percent per year, global production is likely to peak between the years 2007 and 2014. As this time approaches, we can expect prices to rise markedly and, most likely, permanently. Policy changes are needed now to ease the transition to high-priced oil. Oil production will continue, though at a declining rate, for many decades after its peak, and there are enormous amounts of coal, oil sands, heavy oil, and oil shales worldwide that could be used to produce liquid or gaseous substitutes for crude oil, albeit at higher prices. But the facilities for making such synthetic fuels are costly to build and environmentally damaging to operate, and their use would substantially increase carbon dioxide emissions (compared to emissions from products made from conventional crude oil). This paper examines ways of heading of the impending oil crisis. 8 refs., 3 figs.},
doi = {},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/380938}, journal = {Issues in Science and Technology},
number = 4,
volume = 12,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Nov 01 00:00:00 EST 1996},
month = {Fri Nov 01 00:00:00 EST 1996}
}