Uncertainty and variability in human exposures to soil contaminants through home-grown food: A Monte Carlo assessment
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)
This paper presents a general model for exposure to homegrown foods that is used with a Monte Carlo analysis to determine the relative contributions of variability (Type A uncertainty) and true uncertainty (Type B uncertainty) to the overall variance in prediction of the dose-to-concentration ratio. Although classification of exposure inputs as uncertain or variable is somewhat subjective, food consumption rates and exposure duration are judged to have a predicted variance that is dominated by variability among individuals by age, income, culture, and geographical region. Whereas, biotransfer factors and partition factors are inputs that, to a large extent, involve uncertainty. Using ingestion of fruits, vegetables, grains dairy products, and meat and soils assumed to be contaminated by hexachlorbenzene (HCB) and benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) as case studies, a Monte Carlo analysis is used to explore the relative contribution of uncertainty and variability to overall variance in the estimated distribution of potential dose within the population that consumes homegrown foods. It is found that, when soil concentrations are specified, variances in ratios of dose-to-concentration for HCB are equally attributable to uncertainty and variability, whereas for BaP, variance in these ratios is dominated by true uncertainty. 44 refs., 4 figs. 4 tabs.
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-7405-ENG-48
- OSTI ID:
- 35716
- Journal Information:
- Risk Analysis, Vol. 14, Issue 4; Other Information: PBD: Aug 1994
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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