The sensitivity of predicted carbon sequestered by a sustainable forestry management project -- An example from the Sierra Gorda Queretana, Mexico
- Woodrising Consulting Inc., Erin, Ontario (Canada)
- grupo Ecologico Sierra Gorda, Queretaro (Mexico)
Joint Implementation (JI) projects that capture carbon through sequestration are believed by investors to be more risky than other projects that reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This is because of their long lifetime, complicated nature, numerous poorly defined input parameters and perceived high costs of monitoring. Whereas the first factors are true, sensitivity analysis can help reduce these costs by focusing one`s attention on the important parameters. Secondly, sensitivity analysis can be used to improve program design. And finally, one can also create a distribution of possible outcomes for the project. The carbon flux model proposed by Schlamadinger and Marland (1) is used to calculate the amount of carbon sequestered by a forest management project. Using simple sensitivity analysis, the model has been extended to create tornado diagrams and probability distributions. Analysis of these data have led to focusing on estimates of important variables, an understanding of the time-value of money and the possibility of project redesign by the operating Non Government Organization (NGO). The project used in this discussion is a forestry management program supervised by Grupo Ecologico Sierra Gorda, A.C.. Their goal is to create a sustainable forestry practice in the Sierra Gorda Queretana, Mexico. It is a 25 year project involving replanting a 1,000 ha/year for seven years and natural reforestation of a further 1,000 ha/year of marginal farmland for seven years. These two components of the project sequester 1.1 million tonnes of carbon and bring $260 million to the region. A forestry protection program sequesters a further 0.8 million tonnes of carbon at marginal cost. The project is anomalous for a sequestration project in that it makes money and has a 20.5% rate of return.
- OSTI ID:
- 351187
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-970677-; TRN: IM9925%%349
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: 90. annual meeting and exhibition of the Air and Waste Management Association, Toronto (Canada), 8-13 Jun 1997; Other Information: PBD: 1997; Related Information: Is Part Of 1997 proceedings of the Air and Waste Management Association`s 90. annual meeting and exhibition; PB: [7000] p.
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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