Application analysis of Monte Carlo to estimate the capacity of geothermal resources in Lawu Mount

Journal Article · Mon Mar 24 00:00:00 EDT 2014 · AIP Conference Proceedings

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4868761· OSTI ID:22265952

Supriyadi, ^[1]; Srigutomo, Wahyu ^[2]; Munandar, Arif ^[3]

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1. Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Jember, Jl. Kalimantan Kampus Bumi Tegal Boto, Jember 68181 (Indonesia)
2. Complex system and earth physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jl. Ganesha 10, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia)
3. Kelompok Program Penelitian Panas Bumi, PSDG, Badan Geologi, Kementrian ESDM, Jl. Soekarno Hatta No. 444 Bandung 40254 (Indonesia)

Monte Carlo analysis has been applied in calculation of geothermal resource capacity based on volumetric method issued by Standar Nasional Indonesia (SNI). A deterministic formula is converted into a stochastic formula to take into account the nature of uncertainties in input parameters. The method yields a range of potential power probability stored beneath Lawu Mount geothermal area. For 10,000 iterations, the capacity of geothermal resources is in the range of 139.30-218.24 MWe with the most likely value is 177.77 MWe. The risk of resource capacity above 196.19 MWe is less than 10%. The power density of the prospect area covering 17 km{sup 2} is 9.41 MWe/km{sup 2} with probability 80%.

• OSTI ID: 22265952
• Journal Information: AIP Conference Proceedings, Vol. 1589, Issue 1; Conference: ICMNS 2012: 4. international conference on mathematics and natural sciences: Science for health, food and sustainable energy, Bandung (Indonesia), 8-9 Nov 2012; Other Information: (c) 2014 AIP Publishing LLC; Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); ISSN 0094-243X
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

97 MATHEMATICAL METHODS AND COMPUTING
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
GEOTHERMAL FIELDS
GEOTHERMAL RESOURCES
HAZARDS
MONTE CARLO METHOD
POWER DENSITY
PROBABILITY
VOLUMETRIC ANALYSIS