Quantitative Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (QPIRT) for Bayesian uncertainty quantification
- MIT, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States)
Propagating parameter uncertainty for a nuclear reactor system code is a challenging problem due to often non-linear system response to the numerous parameters involved and lengthy computational times; issues that compound when a statistical sampling procedure is adopted, since the code must be run many times. The number of parameters sampled must therefore be limited to as few as possible that still accurately characterize the uncertainty in the system response. A Quantitative Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (QPIRT) was developed to accomplish this goal. The QPIRT consists of two steps: a 'Top-Down' step focusing on identifying the dominant physical phenomena controlling the system response, and a 'Bottom-Up' step which focuses on determining the correlations from those key physical phenomena that significantly contribute to the response uncertainty. The Top-Down step evaluates phenomena using the governing equations of the system code at nominal parameter values, providing a 'fast' screening step. The Bottom-Up step then analyzes the correlations and models for the phenomena identified from the Top-Down step to find which parameters to sample. The QPIRT, through the Top-Down and Bottom-Up steps thus provides a systematic approach to determining the limited set of physically relevant parameters that influence the uncertainty of the system response. This strategy was demonstrated through an application to the RELAP5-based analysis of a PWR Total Loss of main Feedwater Flow (TLOFW) accident, also known as feed and bleed' scenario, . Ultimately, this work is the first component in a larger task of building a calibrated uncertainty propagation framework. The QPIRT is an essential piece because the uncertainty of those selected parameters will be calibrated to data from both Separate and Integral Effect Tests (SETs and IETs). Therefore the system response uncertainty will incorporate the knowledge gained from the database of past large IETs. (authors)
- Research Organization:
- American Nuclear Society, 555 North Kensington Avenue, La Grange Park, IL 60526 (United States)
- OSTI ID:
- 22107799
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: ICAPP '12: 2012 International Congress on Advances in Nuclear Power Plants, Chicago, IL (United States), 24-28 Jun 2012; Other Information: Country of input: France; 6 refs.; Related Information: In: Proceedings of the 2012 International Congress on Advances in Nuclear Power Plants - ICAPP '12| 2799 p.
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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