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Title: TURBULENT PUMPING OF MAGNETIC FLUX REDUCES SOLAR CYCLE MEMORY AND THUS IMPACTS PREDICTABILITY OF THE SUN'S ACTIVITY

Abstract

Prediction of the Sun's magnetic activity is important because of its effect on space environment and climate. However, recent efforts to predict the amplitude of the solar cycle have resulted in diverging forecasts with no consensus. Yeates et al. have shown that the dynamical memory of the solar dynamo mechanism governs predictability, and this memory is different for advection- and diffusion-dominated solar convection zones. By utilizing stochastically forced, kinematic dynamo simulations, we demonstrate that the inclusion of downward turbulent pumping of magnetic flux reduces the memory of both advection- and diffusion-dominated solar dynamos to only one cycle; stronger pumping degrades this memory further. Thus, our results reconcile the diverging dynamo-model-based forecasts for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. We conclude that reliable predictions for the maximum of solar activity can be made only at the preceding minimum-allowing about five years of advance planning for space weather. For more accurate predictions, sequential data assimilation would be necessary in forecasting models to account for the Sun's short memory.

Authors:
 [1];  [2]
  1. Department of Physics, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560012 (India)
  2. Indian Institute for Science Education and Research, Kolkata, Mohampur 741252, West Bengal (India)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
22078381
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Astrophysical Journal Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 761; Journal Issue: 1; Other Information: Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); Journal ID: ISSN 2041-8205
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
79 ASTROPHYSICS, COSMOLOGY AND ASTRONOMY; ADVECTION; AMPLITUDES; CLIMATES; CONVECTION; DIFFUSION; ENVIRONMENT; MAGNETIC FLUX; SIMULATION; SOLAR ACTIVITY; SOLAR CYCLE; SUN; WEATHER

Citation Formats

Karak, Bidya Binay, and Nandy, Dibyendu. TURBULENT PUMPING OF MAGNETIC FLUX REDUCES SOLAR CYCLE MEMORY AND THUS IMPACTS PREDICTABILITY OF THE SUN'S ACTIVITY. United States: N. p., 2012. Web. doi:10.1088/2041-8205/761/1/L13.
Karak, Bidya Binay, & Nandy, Dibyendu. TURBULENT PUMPING OF MAGNETIC FLUX REDUCES SOLAR CYCLE MEMORY AND THUS IMPACTS PREDICTABILITY OF THE SUN'S ACTIVITY. United States. https://doi.org/10.1088/2041-8205/761/1/L13
Karak, Bidya Binay, and Nandy, Dibyendu. 2012. "TURBULENT PUMPING OF MAGNETIC FLUX REDUCES SOLAR CYCLE MEMORY AND THUS IMPACTS PREDICTABILITY OF THE SUN'S ACTIVITY". United States. https://doi.org/10.1088/2041-8205/761/1/L13.
@article{osti_22078381,
title = {TURBULENT PUMPING OF MAGNETIC FLUX REDUCES SOLAR CYCLE MEMORY AND THUS IMPACTS PREDICTABILITY OF THE SUN'S ACTIVITY},
author = {Karak, Bidya Binay and Nandy, Dibyendu},
abstractNote = {Prediction of the Sun's magnetic activity is important because of its effect on space environment and climate. However, recent efforts to predict the amplitude of the solar cycle have resulted in diverging forecasts with no consensus. Yeates et al. have shown that the dynamical memory of the solar dynamo mechanism governs predictability, and this memory is different for advection- and diffusion-dominated solar convection zones. By utilizing stochastically forced, kinematic dynamo simulations, we demonstrate that the inclusion of downward turbulent pumping of magnetic flux reduces the memory of both advection- and diffusion-dominated solar dynamos to only one cycle; stronger pumping degrades this memory further. Thus, our results reconcile the diverging dynamo-model-based forecasts for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. We conclude that reliable predictions for the maximum of solar activity can be made only at the preceding minimum-allowing about five years of advance planning for space weather. For more accurate predictions, sequential data assimilation would be necessary in forecasting models to account for the Sun's short memory.},
doi = {10.1088/2041-8205/761/1/L13},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22078381}, journal = {Astrophysical Journal Letters},
issn = {2041-8205},
number = 1,
volume = 761,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Dec 10 00:00:00 EST 2012},
month = {Mon Dec 10 00:00:00 EST 2012}
}