Precursory measure of interoccurrence time associated with large earthquakes in the Burridge-Knopoff model
- Department of Applied Physics, Advanced School of Science and Engineering, Waseda University, Shinjuku-ku Tokyo 169-8555 (Japan)
We studied the statistical properties of interoccurrence time i.e., time intervals between successive earthquakes in the two-dimensional (2D) Burridge-Knopoff (BK) model, and have found that these statistics can be classified into three types: the subcritical state, the critical state, and the supercritical state. The survivor function of interoccurrence time is well fitted by the Zipf-Mandelbrot type power law in the subcritical regime. However, the fitting accuracy of this distribution tends to be worse as the system changes from the subcritical state to the supercritical state. Because the critical phase of a fault system in nature changes from the subcritical state to the supercritical state prior to a forthcoming large earthquake, we suggest that the fitting accuracy of the survivor distribution can be another precursory measure associated with large earthquakes.
- OSTI ID:
- 21254893
- Journal Information:
- AIP Conference Proceedings, Vol. 1076, Issue 1; Conference: 7. international summer school and conference on 'Let's face chaos through nonlinear dynamics', Maribor (Slovenia), 29 Jun - 13 Jul 2008; Other Information: DOI: 10.1063/1.3046274; (c) 2008 American Institute of Physics; Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); ISSN 0094-243X
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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