Assessing apriori the probability that monitoring programs achieve their objectives: A case study for PCBs in Lake Ontario
- Simon Fraser Univ., Burnaby, British Columbia (Canada). School of Resource and Environmental Management
There are many examples that can illustrate that costly monitoring programs produce data that have insufficient statistical power to detect the effects for which they are designed. This may lead to costly Type 2 errors, where action is not taken although it is warranted. This study discusses a methodology for apriori assessment of the ability of monitoring programs to detect effects with a desired level of confidence. The methodology is a combination of environmental fate and bioaccumulation modelling, statistical power and decision analysis. The methodology is applied to six independent PCB monitoring programs in Lake Ontario and discusses the ability of these monitoring programs to detect changes in PCB loadings to the Lake. Data from these monitoring programs are used to verify the results from simulation model analysis. The results are presented and the role of selection of monitoring species, sampling frequency and size is discussed. Finally, the authors will present a decision framework that can be used to determine the monitoring design with the greatest probability of detecting effects.
- OSTI ID:
- 212020
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-9511137-; ISBN 1-880611-03-1; TRN: IM9617%%336
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: 2. Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) world conference, Vancouver (Canada), 5-9 Nov 1995; Other Information: PBD: 1995; Related Information: Is Part Of Second SETAC world congress (16. annual meeting): Abstract book. Global environmental protection: Science, politics, and common sense; PB: 378 p.
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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