Transparent tools for uncertainty analysis in high level waste disposal facilities safety
- CNEN - National Nuclear Energy Commission (Brazil)
- STUK - Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (Finland)
- Brookhaven National Laboratory, P.O. Box 5000, Upton, NY 11973 (United States)
In this paper some results of a further development of a technical cooperation project, initiated in 2004, between the CDTN/CNEN, The Brazilian National Nuclear Energy Commission, and the STUK, The Finnish Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, are presented. The objective of this project is to study applications of fuzzy logic, and artificial intelligence methods, on uncertainty analysis of high level waste disposal facilities safety assessment. Uncertainty analysis is an essential part of the study of the complex interactions of the features, events and processes, which will affect the performance of the HLW disposal system over the thousands of years in the future. Very often the development of conceptual and computational models requires simplifications and selection of over conservative parameters that can lead to unrealistic results. These results can mask the existing uncertainties which, consequently, can be an obstacle to a better understanding of the natural processes. A correct evaluation of uncertainties and their rule on data interpretation is an important step for the improvement of the confidence in the calculations and public acceptance. This study focuses on dissolution (source), solubility and sorption (sink) as key processes for determination of release and migration of radionuclides. These factors are affected by a number of parameters that characterize the near and far fields such as pH; temperature; redox conditions; and other groundwater properties. On the other hand, these parameters are also consequence of other processes and conditions such as water rock interaction; pH and redox buffering. Fuzzy logic tools have been proved to be suited for dealing with interpretation of complex, and some times conflicting, data. For example, although some parameters, such as pH and carbonate, are treated as independent, they have influence in each other and on the solubility. It is used the technique of fuzzy cognitive mapping is used for analysis of effects of variations on one parameter on the others in a system. This technique uses the concept of fuzzy sets to represent the 'quality' of the relation between parameters rather then deterministic numbers. (authors)
- Research Organization:
- American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME), Three Park Avenue, New York, NY 10016-5990 (United States); Technological Institute of the Royal Flemish Society of Engineers (TI-K VIV), Het Ingenieurshuis, Desguinlei 214, 2018 Antwerp (Belgium); Belgian Nuclear Society (BNS) - ASBL-VZW, c/o SCK-CEN, Avenue Hermann Debrouxlaan, 40 - B-1160 Brussels (Belgium)
- OSTI ID:
- 21156421
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: ICEM'07: 11. International Conference on Environmental Remediation and Radioactive Waste Management, Bruges (Belgium), 2-6 Sep 2007; Other Information: Country of input: France; 7 refs.; Proceedings may be ordered from ASME Order Department, 22 Law Drive, P.O. Box 2300, Fairfield, NJ 07007-2300 (United States)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
CARBONATES
DISSOLUTION
EVALUATION
FUZZY LOGIC
GROUND WATER
HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTES
PH VALUE
RADIATION PROTECTION
RADIOACTIVE WASTE DISPOSAL
RADIOACTIVE WASTE FACILITIES
RISK ASSESSMENT
SOLUBILITY