Influence of Time and Space Correlations on Earthquake Magnitude
- University of Naples 'Federico II', 80125 Naples (Italy)
- Department of Information Engineering and CNISM, Second University of Naples, 81031 Aversa (Italy)
- Department of Environmental Sciences and CNISM, Second University of Naples, 81100 Caserta (Italy)
A crucial point in the debate on the feasibility of earthquake predictions is the dependence of an earthquake magnitude from past seismicity. Indeed, while clustering in time and space is widely accepted, much more questionable is the existence of magnitude correlations. The standard approach generally assumes that magnitudes are independent and therefore in principle unpredictable. Here we show the existence of clustering in magnitude: earthquakes occur with higher probability close in time, space, and magnitude to previous events. More precisely, the next earthquake tends to have a magnitude similar but smaller than the previous one. A dynamical scaling relation between magnitude, time, and space distances reproduces the complex pattern of magnitude, spatial, and temporal correlations observed in experimental seismic catalogs.
- OSTI ID:
- 21020988
- Journal Information:
- Physical Review Letters, Vol. 100, Issue 3; Other Information: DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.100.038501; (c) 2008 The American Physical Society; Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); ISSN 0031-9007
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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