Sensitivity of global-scale climate change attribution results to inclusion of fossil fuel black carbon aerosol - article no. L14701
- Hadley Center for Climate Predictions & Research, Exeter (United Kingdom)
It is likely that greenhouse gas emissions caused most of the global mean warming observed during the 20th century, and that sulphate aerosols counteracted this warming to some extent, by reflecting solar radiation to space and thereby cooling the planet. However, the importance of another aerosol, namely black carbon, could be underestimated. Here we include fossil fuel black carbon aerosol in a detection and attribution analysis with greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosols. We find that most of the warming of the 20th Century is attributable to changes in greenhouse gases offset by net aerosol cooling. However the pattern of temperature change due to black carbon is currently indistinguishable from the sulphate aerosol pattern of temperature change. The attribution of temperature change due to greenhouse gases is not sensitive to the inclusion of black carbon. We can be confident about the overall attribution of total aerosols, but less so about the contributions of black carbon emissions to 20th century climate change. This work presents no evidence that black carbon aerosol forcing outweighed the cooling due to sulphate aerosol.
- OSTI ID:
- 20647602
- Journal Information:
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, Issue 14; ISSN 0094-8276
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Significant impact of forcing uncertainty in a large ensemble of climate model simulations
Collaborative Research: Quantifying Climate Feedbacks of the Terrestrial Biosphere under Thawing Permafrost Conditions in the Arctic