Evaluation of atmospheric transport models for use in Phase II of the historical public exposures studies at the Rocky Flats Plant
Five atmospheric transport models were evaluated for use in Phase II of the Historical Public Exposures Studies at the Rocky Flats Plant. Models included a simple straight-line Gaussian plume model (ISCST2), several integrated puff models (RATCHET, TRIAD, and INPUFF2), and a complex terrain model (TRAC). Evaluations were based on how well model predictions compared with sulfur hexafluoride tracer measurements taken in the vicinity of Rocky Flats in February 1991. Twelve separate tracer experiments were conducted, each lasting 9 hr and measured at 140 samplers in arcs 8 and 16 km from the release point at Rocky Flats. Four modeling objectives were defined based on the endpoints of the overall study: (1) the unpaired maximum hourly average concentration, (2) paired time-averaged concentration, (3) unpaired time-averaged concentration, and (4) arc-integrated concentration. Performance measures were used to evaluate models and focused on the geometric mean and standard deviation of the predicted-to-observed ratio and the correlation coefficient between predicted and observed concentrations. No one model consistently outperformed the others in all modeling objectives and performance measures. The overall performance of the RATCHET model was somewhat better than the other models.
- Research Organization:
- K-Spar Inc., Rigby, ID (US)
- OSTI ID:
- 20001048
- Journal Information:
- Risk Analysis, Vol. 19, Issue 4; Other Information: PBD: Aug 1999; ISSN 0272-4332
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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