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Title: Initial Evidence for Self-Organized Criticality in Electric Power System Blackouts

We examine correlations in a time series of electric power system blackout sizes using scaled window variance analysis and R/S statistics. The data shows some evidence of long time correlations and has Hurst exponent near 0.7. Large blackouts tend to correlate with further large blackouts after a long time interval. Similar effects are also observed in many other complex systems exhibiting self-organized criticality. We discuss this initial evidence and possible explanations for self-organized criticality in power systems blackouts. Self-organized criticality, if fully confirmed in power systems, would suggest new approaches to understanding and possibly controlling blackouts.
Authors:
; ; ;
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
14056
Report Number(s):
ORNL/CP-104875
TRN: AH200136%%293
DOE Contract Number:
AC05-96OR22464
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: Hawaii Int. Conf. on System Science, Maui, HI (US), 01/04/2000--01/07/2000; Other Information: PBD: 4 Jan 2000
Publisher:
IEEE Computer Society, Maui, HI
Research Org:
Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (US)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Science (US)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION; OUTAGES; POWER SYSTEMS; TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS; LOAD MANAGEMENT