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Title: Initial Evidence for Self-Organized Criticality in Electric Power System Blackouts

Initial Evidence for Self-Organized Criticality in Electric Power System Blackouts We examine correlations in a time series of electric power system blackout sizes using scaled window variance analysis and R/S statistics. The data shows some evidence of long time correlations and has Hurst exponent near 0.7. Large blackouts tend to correlate with further large blackouts after a long time interval. Similar effects are also observed in many other complex systems exhibiting self-organized criticality. We discuss this initial evidence and possible explanations for self-organized criticality in power systems blackouts. Self-organized criticality, if fully confirmed in power systems, would suggest new approaches to understanding and possibly controlling blackouts.
Authors: ; ; ;
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:OSTI ID: 14056
Report Number(s):ORNL/CP-104875
TRN: AH200136%%293
DOE Contract Number:AC05-96OR22464
Resource Type:Conference
Resource Relation:Conference: Hawaii Int. Conf. on System Science, Maui, HI (US), 01/04/2000--01/07/2000; Other Information: PBD: 4 Jan 2000
Research Org:Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (US)
Sponsoring Org:USDOE Office of Science (US)
Country of Publication:United States
Language:English
Subject: 24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION; OUTAGES; POWER SYSTEMS; TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS; LOAD MANAGEMENT