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Title: Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting

Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.
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Conference: Presented at the IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, 26-30 July 2015, Denver, Colorado
Piscataway, NJ: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)
Research Org:
NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States))
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
Country of Publication:
United States
14 SOLAR ENERGY; 24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION forecasting; measurement; predictive models; weather forecasting; biological system modeling; numerical models; spinning