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Title: A High-Resolution Spatially Explicit Monte-Carlo Simulation Approach to Commercial and Residential Electricity and Water Demand Modeling

Abstract As urban areas continue to grow and evolve in a world of increasing environmental awareness, the need for high resolution spatially explicit estimates for energy and water demand has become increasingly important. Though current modeling efforts mark significant progress in the effort to better understand the spatial distribution of energy and water consumption, many are provided at a course spatial resolution or rely on techniques which depend on detailed region-specific data sources that are not publicly available for many parts of the U.S. Furthermore, many existing methods do not account for errors in input data sources and may therefore not accurately reflect inherent uncertainties in model outputs. We propose an alternative and more flexible Monte-Carlo simulation approach to high-resolution residential and commercial electricity and water consumption modeling that relies primarily on publicly available data sources. The method s flexible data requirement and statistical framework ensure that the model is both applicable to a wide range of regions and reflective of uncertainties in model results. Key words: Energy Modeling, Water Modeling, Monte-Carlo Simulation, Uncertainty Quantification Acknowledgment This manuscript has been authored by employees of UT-Battelle, LLC, under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the U.S. Department of Energy. Accordingly, the United States Governmentmore » retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the United States Government retains a non-exclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, world-wide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for United States Government purposes.« less
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  1. ORNL
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Resource Relation:
Conference: American Association of Geographers (AAG), San Francisco, CA, USA, 20160329, 20160402
Research Org:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
ORNL LDRD Director's R&D
Country of Publication:
United States
Energy Modeling; Water Modeling; Monte-Carlo Simulation; Uncertainty Quantification