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Title: Decadal trends in the seasonal-cycle amplitude of terrestrial CO2 exchange resulting from the ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models

The seasonal-cycle amplitude (SCA) of the atmosphere–ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange rate is a useful metric of the responsiveness of the terrestrial biosphere to environmental variations. It is unclear, however, what underlying mechanisms are responsible for the observed increasing trend of SCA in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Using output data from the Multi-scale Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we investigated how well the SCA of atmosphere–ecosystem CO2 exchange was simulated with 15 contemporary terrestrial ecosystem models during the period 1901–2010. Also, we made attempt to evaluate the contributions of potential mechanisms such as atmospheric CO2, climate, land-use, and nitrogen deposition, through factorial experiments using different combinations of forcing data. Under contemporary conditions, the simulated global-scale SCA of the cumulative net ecosystem carbon flux of most models was comparable in magnitude with the SCA of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Results from factorial simulation experiments showed that elevated atmospheric CO2 exerted a strong influence on the seasonality amplification. When the model considered not only climate change but also land-use and atmospheric CO2 changes, the majority of the models showed amplification trends of the SCAs of photosynthesis, respiration, and net ecosystem production (+0.19 % to +0.50 % yr–1). In the case of land-use change, itmore » was difficult to separate the contribution of agricultural management to SCA because of inadequacies in both the data and models. The simulated amplification of SCA was approximately consistent with the observational evidence of the SCA in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Large inter-model differences remained, however, in the simulated global tendencies and spatial patterns of CO2 exchanges. Further studies are required to identify a consistent explanation for the simulated and observed amplification trends, including their underlying mechanisms. Furthermore, this study implied that monitoring of ecosystem seasonality would provide useful insights concerning ecosystem dynamics.« less
 [1] ;  [2] ;  [3] ;  [4] ;  [5] ;  [6] ;  [6] ;  [6] ;  [6] ;  [6] ;  [7] ;  [8] ;  [8] ;  [6] ;  [6] ;  [6] ;  [9] ;  [10] ;  [11] ;  [12] more »;  [11] ;  [11] ;  [13] ;  [14] ;  [15] ;  [15] ;  [16] ;  [16] ;  [17] ;  [18] ;  [19] ;  [19] « less
  1. National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba (Japan); Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama (Japan)
  2. Ibaraki Univ., Ami (Japan)
  3. Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States)
  4. Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States); Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA (United States)
  5. Carnegie Institute for Science, Stanford, CA (United States)
  6. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  7. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Moffett Field, CA (United States)
  8. McMaster Univ., Hamilton, ON (Canada)
  9. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  10. Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China)
  11. Auburn Univ., Auburn, AL (United States)
  12. Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)
  13. Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States)
  14. Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States)
  15. Lab. des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif sur Yvette (France)
  16. California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States)
  17. National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, CO (United States)
  18. Univ. of Quebec at Montreal, Montreal (Canada); Northwest A&F Univ., Shaanxi (China)
  19. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
Report Number(s):
Journal ID: ISSN 0280-6509
Grant/Contract Number:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Tellus, Series B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 68; Journal Issue: 0; Journal ID: ISSN 0280-6509
Co-action Publishing
Research Org:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
Country of Publication:
United States
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES atmospheric carbon dioxide; carbon cycle; climate change; land-use change; seasonal cycle; terrestrial ecosystem