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Title: Isolating the anthropogenic component of Arctic warming

Structural equation modeling is used in statistical applications as both confirmatory and exploratory modeling to test models and to suggest the most plausible explanation for a relationship between the independent and the dependent variables. Although structural analysis cannot prove causation, it can suggest the most plausible set of factors that influence the observed variable. We apply structural model analysis to the annual mean Arctic surface air temperature from 1900 to 2012 to find the most effective set of predictors and to isolate the anthropogenic component of the recent Arctic warming by subtracting the effects of natural forcing and variability from the observed temperature. We find that anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols radiative forcing and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation internal mode dominate Arctic temperature variability. Furthermore, our structural model analysis of observational data suggests that about half of the recent Arctic warming of 0.64 K/decade may have anthropogenic causes.
 [1] ;  [1] ;  [2] ;  [3] ;  [4] ;  [5] ;  [1]
  1. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  2. Dalhousie Univ., Halifax, NS (Canada)
  3. Par Associates, Las Cruces, NM (United States)
  4. Univ. of Oslo and Univ. Centre in Svalbard, Oslo (Norway)
  5. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
Report Number(s):
Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Grant/Contract Number:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 41; Journal Issue: 10; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
American Geophysical Union
Research Org:
Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
Country of Publication:
United States