Impacts of Rising Air Temperatures and Emissions Mitigation on Electricity Demand and Supply in the United States. A Multi-Model Comparison

McFarland, James; Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon; Sullivan, Patrick; Colman, Jesse; Jaglom, Wendy S.; Colley, Michelle; Patel, Pralit; Eom, Jiyon; Kim, Son H.; Kyle, G. Page; Schultz, Peter; Venkatesh, Boddu; Haydel, Juanita; Mack, Charlotte; Creason, Jared

doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1380-8

Title: Impacts of Rising Air Temperatures and Emissions Mitigation on Electricity Demand and Supply in the United States. A Multi-Model Comparison

Journal Article · Wed Jun 10 00:00:00 EDT 2015 · Climatic Change

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1380-8· OSTI ID:1242035

McFarland, James ^[1]; Zhou, Yuyu ^[2]; Clarke, Leon ^[2]; Sullivan, Patrick ^[3]; Colman, Jesse ^[3]; Jaglom, Wendy S. ^[4]; Colley, Michelle ^[4]; Patel, Pralit ^[2]; Eom, Jiyon ^[2]; Kim, Son H. ^[2]; Kyle, G. Page ^[2]; Schultz, Peter ^[4]; Venkatesh, Boddu ^[4]; Haydel, Juanita ^[4]; Mack, Charlotte ^[4]; Creason, Jared ^[1]

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
ICF International, Fairfax, VA (United States)

The electric power sector both affects and is affected by climate change. Numerous studies highlight the potential of the power sector to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Fewer studies have explored the physical impacts of climate change on the power sector. Our present analysis examines how projected rising temperatures affect the demand for and supply of electricity. We apply a common set of temperature projections to three well-known electric sector models in the United States: the US version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-USA), the Regional Electricity Deployment System model (ReEDS), and the Integrated Planning Model (IPM®). Incorporating the effects of rising temperatures from a control scenario without emission mitigation into the models raises electricity demand by 1.6 to 6.5 % in 2050 with similar changes in emissions. Moreover, the increase in system costs in the reference scenario to meet this additional demand is comparable to the change in system costs associated with decreasing power sector emissions by approximately 50 % in 2050. This result underscores the importance of adequately incorporating the effects of long-run temperature change in climate policy analysis.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC36-08GO28308

OSTI ID:: 1242035

Report Number(s):: NREL/JA-6A20-64923

Journal Information:: Climatic Change, Vol. 131, Issue 1; Related Information: Climatic Change; ISSN 0165-0009

Publisher:: SpringerCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Citation Metrics:

Cited by: 48 works

Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (19)

The objECTS Framework for integrated Assessment: Hybrid Modeling of Transportation Kim, Son H.; Edmonds, Jae; Lurz, Josh The Energy Journal, Vol. SI2006, Issue 01 https://doi.org/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VolSI2006-NoSI2-4	journal	September 2006
Effects of projected climate change on energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest and Washington State Hamlet, Alan F.; Lee, Se-Yeun; Mickelson, Kristian E. B. Climatic Change, Vol. 102, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9857-y	journal	May 2010
China's building energy demand: Long-term implications from a detailed assessment Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon; Kim, Son H. Energy, Vol. 46, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2012.08.009	journal	October 2012
Dynamic temperature dependence patterns in future energy demand models in the context of climate change Hekkenberg, M.; Moll, H. C.; Uiterkamp, A. J. M. Schoot Energy, Vol. 34, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2009.07.037	journal	November 2009
The effect of global climate change, population distribution, and climate mitigation on building energy use in the U.S. and China Zhou, Yuyu; Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon Climatic Change, Vol. 119, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0772-x	journal	May 2013
Effects of Global Warming on Energy Use for Space Heating and Cooling in the United States Rosenthal, Donald H.; Gruenspecht, Howard K.; Moran, Emily A. The Energy Journal, Vol. 16, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol16-No2-4	journal	April 1995
Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change Isaac, Morna; van Vuuren, Detlef P. Energy Policy, Vol. 37, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.09.051	journal	February 2009
Evaluating renewable portfolio standards and carbon cap scenarios in the U.S. electric sector Bird, Lori; Chapman, Caroline; Logan, Jeff Energy Policy, Vol. 39, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.02.025	journal	May 2011
Climate change and electricity demand in California Franco, Guido; Sanstad, Alan H. Climatic Change, Vol. 87, Issue S1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9364-y	journal	December 2007
Modeling the effect of climate change on U.S. state-level buildings energy demands in an integrated assessment framework Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon; Eom, Jiyong Applied Energy, Vol. 113 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.08.034	journal	January 2014
Assessment of projected temperature impacts from climate change on the U.S. electric power sector using the Integrated Planning Model® Jaglom, Wendy S.; McFarland, James R.; Colley, Michelle F. Energy Policy, Vol. 73 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.04.032	journal	October 2014
Impacts of climate change on energy consumption and peak demand in buildings: A detailed regional approach Dirks, James A.; Gorrissen, Willy J.; Hathaway, John H. Energy, Vol. 79 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2014.08.081	journal	January 2015
Responses of energy use to climate change: A climate modeling study Hadley, Stanton W.; Erickson, David J.; Hernandez, Jose Luis Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026652	journal	January 2006
A review of water use in the U.S. electric power sector: insights from systems-level perspectives Dodder, Rebecca S. Current Opinion in Chemical Engineering, Vol. 5 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coche.2014.03.004	journal	August 2014
A framework for modeling uncertainty in regional climate change Monier, Erwan; Gao, Xiang; Scott, Jeffery R. Climatic Change, Vol. 131, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1112-5	journal	June 2014
Integrated economic and climate projections for impact assessment Paltsev, Sergey; Monier, Erwan; Scott, Jeffery Climatic Change, Vol. 131, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0892-3	journal	October 2013
Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) Short, W.; Sullivan, P.; Mai, T. https://doi.org/10.2172/1031955	report	December 2011
Predicting the Response of Electricity Load to Climate Change Sullivan, Patrick; Colman, Jesse; Kalendra, Eric https://doi.org/10.2172/1215283	report	July 2015
Overview of the special issue: a multi-model framework to achieve consistent evaluation of climate change impacts in the United States Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Martinich, Jeremy; Sarofim, Marcus Climatic Change, Vol. 131, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1206-0	journal	September 2014

Cited By (11)

Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps Cronin, Jennifer; Anandarajah, Gabrial; Dessens, Olivier Climatic Change, Vol. 151, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2265-4	journal	August 2018
Potential impacts of climate change on storage conditions for commercial agriculture: an example for potato production in Michigan Winkler, Julie A.; Soldo, Logan; Tang, Ying Climatic Change, Vol. 151, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2301-4	journal	September 2018
Seasonal effects of climate change on intra-day electricity demand patterns Ralston Fonseca, Francisco; Jaramillo, Paulina; Bergés, Mario Climatic Change, Vol. 154, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02413-w	journal	March 2019
Decomposing supply-side and demand-side impacts of climate change on the US electricity system through 2050 Steinberg, Daniel C.; Mignone, Bryan K.; Macknick, Jordan Climatic Change, Vol. 158, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02506-6	journal	January 2020
Amplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change van Ruijven, Bas J.; De Cian, Enrica; Sue Wing, Ian Nature Communications, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10399-3	journal	June 2019
Climate damages and adaptation potential across diverse sectors of the United States Martinich, Jeremy; Crimmins, Allison Nature Climate Change, Vol. 9, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0444-6	journal	April 2019
Impacts of rising air temperatures on electric transmission ampacity and peak electricity load in the United States Bartos, Matthew; Chester, Mikhail; Johnson, Nathan Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 11, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114008	journal	November 2016
Shift in seasonal climate patterns likely to impact residential energy consumption in the United States Rastogi, Deeksha; Holladay, James Scott; Evans, Katherine J. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab22d2	journal	July 2019
Projected increase in the spatial extent of contiguous US summer heat waves and associated attributes Lyon, Bradfield; Barnston, Anthony G.; Coffel, Ethan Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4b41	journal	November 2019
Compounding climate change impacts during high stress periods for a high wind and solar power system in Texas Craig, Michael T.; Jaramillo, Paulina; Hodge, Bri-Mathias Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 15, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6615	journal	January 2020
Generating a Set of Temperature Time Series Representative of Recent Past and Near Future Climate Parey, Sylvie Frontiers in Environmental Science, Vol. 7 https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2019.00099	journal	June 2019

Similar Records

Erratum to: Impacts of rising air temperatures and emissions mitigation on electricity demand and supply in the United States: a multi-model comparison

Journal Article · Tue Jul 07 00:00:00 EDT 2015 · Climatic Change · OSTI ID:1242035

McFarland, James; Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon; +13 more

Impacts of rising air temperatures and emissions mitigation on electricity demand and supply in the United States: a multi-model comparison

Journal Article · Wed Jun 10 00:00:00 EDT 2015 · Climatic Change · OSTI ID:1242035

McFarland, James; Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon; +13 more

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Technical Report · Thu Dec 01 00:00:00 EST 2022 · OSTI ID:1242035

Binsted, Matthew; Suchyta, Harry; Zhang, Ying; +5 more

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
electricity demand and supply

Title: Impacts of Rising Air Temperatures and Emissions Mitigation on Electricity Demand and Supply in the United States. A Multi-Model Comparison

Citation Formats

References (19)

Cited By (11)

Similar Records

Related Subjects