Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics

Franklin, Janet; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Regan, Helen M.

doi:10.1073/pnas.1519911113

Title: Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics

Journal Article · Mon Feb 29 00:00:00 EST 2016 · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1519911113· OSTI ID:1239849

Franklin, Janet ^[1]; Serra-Diaz, Josep M. ^[2]; Syphard, Alexandra D. ^[3]; Regan, Helen M. ^[4]

School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287,
School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287,, Harvard Forest, Harvard University, Petersham, MA 01633,
Conservation Biology Institute, La Mesa, CA 91941,
Department of Biology, University of California, Riverside, CA 92521

Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this article, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on a literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Lastly, monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change.

View Journal Article

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Science Foundation (NSF); California Landscape Conservation Cooperative (United States)

Contributing Organization:: Harvard Univ., Petersham, MA (United States); Univ. of California, Riverside, CA (United States); Conservation Biology Inst., La Mesa, CA (United States)

Grant/Contract Number:: FC02-06ER64159; 5288768; EF-1065826; EF-1065753; 0824708

OSTI ID:: 1239849

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1348354

Journal Information:: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Journal Name: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Vol. 113 Journal Issue: 14; ISSN 0027-8424

Publisher:: Proceedings of the National Academy of SciencesCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Citation Metrics:

Cited by: 233 works

Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (140)

Disturbance and climate microrefugia mediate tree range shifts during climate change Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Scheller, Robert M.; Syphard, Alexandra D. Landscape Ecology, Vol. 30, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-015-0173-9	journal	February 2015
Greenness indices from digital cameras predict the timing and seasonal dynamics of canopy-scale photosynthesis Toomey, Michael; Friedl, Mark A.; Frolking, Steve Ecological Applications, Vol. 25, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1890/14-0005.1	journal	January 2015
High-resolution forest carbon stocks and emissions in the Amazon Asner, G. P.; Powell, G. V. N.; Mascaro, J. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 107, Issue 38 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1004875107	journal	September 2010
Projected major fire and vegetation changes in the Pacific Northwest of the conterminous United States under selected CMIP5 climate futures Sheehan, T.; Bachelet, D.; Ferschweiler, K. Ecological Modelling, Vol. 317 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.08.023	journal	December 2015
Impacts of climate change on species, populations and communities: palaeobiogeographical insights and frontiers MacDonald, G. M.; Bennett, K. D.; Jackson, S. T. Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment, Vol. 32, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133308094081	journal	April 2008
National Forest Inventory and forest observational studies in Spain: Applications to forest modeling Álvarez-González, J. G.; Cañellas, I.; Alberdi, I. Forest Ecology and Management, Vol. 316 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2013.09.007	journal	March 2014
Long-Term Ecological Research and Network-Level Science Collins, Scott L.; Childers, Daniel L. Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, Vol. 95, Issue 33 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EO330001	journal	August 2014
Responses of terrestrial ecosystems to temperature and precipitation change: a meta-analysis of experimental manipulation: META-ANALYSIS OF EXPERIMENTAL MANIPULATION Wu, Zhuoting; Dijkstra, Paul; Koch, George W. Global Change Biology, Vol. 17, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02302.x	journal	January 2011
Impacts of climate change on the vegetation of Africa: an adaptive dynamic vegetation modelling approach Scheiter, Simon; Higgins, Steven I. Global Change Biology, Vol. 15, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01838.x	journal	September 2009
Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models Keith, David A.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Thuiller, Wilfried Biology Letters, Vol. 4, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2008.0049	journal	July 2008
Computer and remote‐sensing infrastructure to enhance large‐scale testing of individual‐based forest models Shugart, Herman H.; Asner, Gregory P.; Fischer, Rico Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, Vol. 13, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1890/140327	journal	November 2015
On using integral projection models to generate demographically driven predictions of species' distributions: development and validation using sparse data Merow, Cory; Latimer, Andrew M.; Wilson, Adam M. Ecography, Vol. 37, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.00839	journal	July 2014
Twentieth-century shifts in forest structure in California: Denser forests, smaller trees, and increased dominance of oaks McIntyre, Patrick J.; Thorne, James H.; Dolanc, Christopher R. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1410186112	journal	January 2015
CTFS-ForestGEO: a worldwide network monitoring forests in an era of global change Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J.; Davies, Stuart J.; Bennett, Amy C. Global Change Biology, Vol. 21, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12712	journal	September 2014
Patterns and drivers of regeneration of tree species in forests of peninsular Spain Vayreda, Jordi; Gracia, Marc; Martinez-Vilalta, Jordi Journal of Biogeography, Vol. 40, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12105	journal	March 2013
Representing climate, disturbance, and vegetation interactions in landscape models Keane, Robert E.; McKenzie, Donald; Falk, Donald A. Ecological Modelling, Vol. 309-310 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.04.009	journal	August 2015
Does probability of occurrence relate to population dynamics? Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Schiffers, Katja H. Ecography, Vol. 37, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.00836	journal	September 2014
Convergent ecosystem responses to 23-year ambient and manipulated warming link advancing snowmelt and shrub encroachment to transient and long-term climate-soil carbon feedback Harte, John; Saleska, Scott R.; Levy, Charlotte Global Change Biology, Vol. 21, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12831	journal	January 2015
High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change Hansen, M. C.; Potapov, P. V.; Moore, R. Science, Vol. 342, Issue 6160 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1244693	journal	November 2013
Fire Management, Managed Relocation, and Land Conservation Options for Long-Lived Obligate Seeding Plants under Global Changes in Climate, Urbanization, and Fire Regime: Fire, Translocation, and Land Protection Bonebrake, Timothy C.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Franklin, Janet Conservation Biology, Vol. 28, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.12253	journal	March 2014
The US Long Term Ecological Research Program Hobbie, John E.; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Grimm, Nancy B. BioScience, Vol. 53, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1641/0006-3568(2003)053[0021:TULTER]2.0.CO;2	journal	January 2003
Size-Specific Sensitivity: Applying a new Structured Population Model Easterling, Michael R.; Ellner, Stephen P.; Dixon, Philip M. Ecology, Vol. 81, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1890/0012-9658(2000)081[0694:SSSAAN]2.0.CO;2	journal	March 2000
Effects of climate, species interactions, and dispersal on decadal colonization and extinction rates of Iberian tree species García-Valdés, Raúl; Gotelli, Nicholas J.; Zavala, Miguel A. Ecological Modelling, Vol. 309-310 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.04.003	journal	August 2015
Multivariate effect gradients driving forest demographic responses in the Iberian Peninsula Coll, Marta; Peñuelas, Josep; Ninyerola, Miquel Forest Ecology and Management, Vol. 303 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2013.04.010	journal	September 2013
Contributions of Land-Use History to Carbon Accumulation in U.S. Forests Caspersen, J. P. Science, Vol. 290, Issue 5494 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.290.5494.1148	journal	November 2000
What have we learned from 15 years of free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE)? A meta-analytic review of the responses of photosynthesis, canopy properties and plant production to rising CO2: Tansley review Ainsworth, Elizabeth A.; Long, Stephen P. New Phytologist, Vol. 165, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2004.01224.x	journal	November 2004
California forests show early indications of both range shifts and local persistence under climate change: Early indications of tree range shifts Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Franklin, Janet; Dillon, Whalen W. Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 25, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12396	journal	October 2015
Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO ₂ and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models Cramer, Wolfgang; Bondeau, Alberte; Woodward, F. Ian Global Change Biology, Vol. 7, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2001.00383.x	journal	April 2001
A continental strategy for the National Ecological Observatory Network Keller, Michael; Schimel, David S.; Hargrove, William W. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, Vol. 6, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1890/1540-9295(2008)6[282:ACSFTN]2.0.CO;2	journal	June 2008
Chasing a moving target: projecting climate change-induced shifts in non-equilibrial tree species distributions García-Valdés, Raúl; Zavala, Miguel A.; Araújo, Miguel B. Journal of Ecology, Vol. 101, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12049	journal	January 2013
A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the World's Forests Pan, Y.; Birdsey, R. A.; Fang, J. Science, Vol. 333, Issue 6045 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1201609	journal	July 2011
The role of fire disturbance for global vegetation dynamics: coupling fire into a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model: Fire disturbance and global vegetation dynamics Thonicke, Kirsten; Venevsky, Sergey; Sitch, Stephen Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 10, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1466-822X.2001.00175.x	journal	November 2001
Implementing a U.S. National Phenology Network Betancourt, Julio L.; Schwartz, Mark D.; Breshears, David D. Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, Vol. 86, Issue 51 https://doi.org/10.1029/2005EO510005	journal	January 2005
Climate-related range shifts - a global multidimensional synthesis and new research directions Lenoir, J.; Svenning, J. -C. Ecography, Vol. 38, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.00967	journal	June 2014
Observing terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle from space Schimel, David; Pavlick, Ryan; Fisher, Joshua B. Global Change Biology, Vol. 21, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12822	journal	February 2015
Ecology and the ratchet of events: Climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions Jackson, S. T.; Betancourt, J. L.; Booth, R. K. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, Issue Supplement_2 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0901644106	journal	September 2009
Species Distribution Modeling Elith, Jane; Franklin, Janet Encyclopedia of Biodiversity https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-384719-5.00318-X	book	January 2013
Estimating themissing species bias in plant trait measurements Sandel, Brody; Gutiérrez, Alvaro G.; Reich, Peter B. Journal of Vegetation Science, Vol. 26, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1111/jvs.12292	journal	May 2015
Predictive vegetation mapping: geographic modelling of biospatial patterns in relation to environmental gradients Franklin, Janet Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment, Vol. 19, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1177/030913339501900403	journal	December 1995
Forest structure and species traits mediate projected recruitment declines in western US tree species: Tree recruitment patterns in the western US Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Swanson, Alan K.; Abatzoglou, John T. Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 24, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12302	journal	April 2015
Anticipating the spatio-temporal response of plant diversity and vegetation structure to climate and land use change in a protected area Boulangeat, Isabelle; Georges, Damien; Dentant, Cédric Ecography, Vol. 37, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.00694	journal	April 2014
Biological Invasions by Exotic Grasses, the Grass/Fire Cycle, and Global Change D'Antonio, Carla M.; Vitousek, Peter M. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, Vol. 23, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.es.23.110192.000431	journal	November 1992
Three hundred years of forest and land-use change in Massachusetts, USA Hall, Brian; Motzkin, Glenn; Foster, David R. Journal of Biogeography, Vol. 29, Issue 10-11 https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2699.2002.00790.x	journal	October 2002
FATE-HD: a spatially and temporally explicit integrated model for predicting vegetation structure and diversity at regional scale Isabelle, Boulangeat; Damien, Georges; Wilfried, Thuiller Global Change Biology, Vol. 20, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12466	journal	April 2014
Global Biodiversity Scenarios for the Year 2100 Sala, O. E. Science, Vol. 287, Issue 5459 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.287.5459.1770	journal	March 2000
Novel climates, no-analog communities, and ecological surprises Williams, John W.; Jackson, Stephen T. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, Vol. 5, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1890/070037	journal	November 2007
Potential impacts of future land use and climate change on the Red List status of the Proteaceae in the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa Bomhard, Bastian; Richardson, David M.; Donaldson, John S. Global Change Biology, Vol. 11, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.00997.x	journal	September 2005
The challenge of hot drought Overpeck, Jonathan T. Nature, Vol. 503, Issue 7476 https://doi.org/10.1038/503350a	journal	November 2013
A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests Allen, Craig D.; Macalady, Alison K.; Chenchouni, Haroun Forest Ecology and Management, Vol. 259, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2009.09.001	journal	February 2010
Process-Based Modeling of Species' Distributions: what Limits Temperate tree Species' Range Boundaries? Morin, Xavier; Augspurger, Carol; Chuine, Isabelle Ecology, Vol. 88, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1890/06-1591.1	journal	September 2007
Modelling climate change-driven treeline shifts: relative effects of temperature increase, dispersal and invasibility Dullinger, Stefan; Dirnbock, Thomas; Grabherr, Georg Journal of Ecology, Vol. 92, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0022-0477.2004.00872.x	journal	April 2004
Climate Change and Forest Disturbances Dale, Virginia H.; Joyce, Linda A.; Mcnulty, Steve BioScience, Vol. 51, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1641/0006-3568(2001)051[0723:CCAFD]2.0.CO;2	journal	January 2001
Ranking Conservation and Timber Management Options for Leadbeater's Possum in Southeastern Australia Using Population Viability Analysis Lindenmayer, David B.; Possingham, Hugh P. Conservation Biology, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1523-1739.1996.10010235.x	journal	February 1996
Rapid Range Shifts of Species Associated with High Levels of Climate Warming Chen, I. -C.; Hill, J. K.; Ohlemuller, R. Science, Vol. 333, Issue 6045 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1206432	journal	August 2011
Widespread Increase of Tree Mortality Rates in the Western United States van Mantgem, P. J.; Stephenson, N. L.; Byrne, J. C. Science, Vol. 323, Issue 5913 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1165000	journal	January 2009
The linkages between photosynthesis, productivity, growth and biomass in lowland Amazonian forests Malhi, Yadvinder; Doughty, Christopher E.; Goldsmith, Gregory R. Global Change Biology, Vol. 21, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12859	journal	March 2015
Enhanced precipitation variability decreases grass- and increases shrub-productivity Gherardi, Laureano A.; Sala, Osvaldo E. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, Issue 41 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1506433112	journal	September 2015
Evaluating the combined effects of climate and land-use change on tree species distributions García-Valdés, Raúl; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Zavala, Miguel A. Journal of Applied Ecology, Vol. 52, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.12453	journal	June 2015
Linking spatially explicit species distribution and population models to plan for the persistence of plant species under global change Franklin, Janet; Regan, Helen M.; Syphard, Alexandra D. Environmental Conservation, Vol. 41, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1017/S0376892913000453	journal	November 2013
Responses of plant populations and communities to environmental changes of the late Quaternary Jackson, Stephen T.; Overpeck, Jonathan T. Paleobiology, Vol. 26, Issue S4 https://doi.org/10.1017/S0094837300026932	journal	January 2000
Climatic Correlates of Tree Mortality in Water- and Energy-Limited Forests Das, Adrian J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Flint, Alan PLoS ONE, Vol. 8, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0069917	journal	July 2013
The role of demography, intra-species variation, and species distribution models in species' projections under climate change Swab, Rebecca M.; Regan, Helen M.; Matthies, Diethart Ecography, Vol. 38, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.00585	journal	October 2014
Observing changing ecological diversity in the Anthropocene Schimel, David S.; Asner, Gregory P.; Moorcroft, Paul Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, Vol. 11, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1890/120111	journal	April 2013
Using dynamic vegetation models to simulate plant range shifts Snell, R. S.; Huth, A.; Nabel, J. E. M. S. Ecography, Vol. 37, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.00580	journal	March 2014
Growth enhancement due to global atmospheric change as predicted by terrestrial ecosystem models: consistent with US forest inventory data Joos, Fortunat; Prentice, I. Colin; House, Joanna I. Global Change Biology, Vol. 8, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1354-1013.2002.00505.x	journal	April 2002
Widespread crown condition decline, food web disruption, and amplified tree mortality with increased climate change-type drought Carnicer, J.; Coll, M.; Ninyerola, M. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 108, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1010070108	journal	January 2011
Taking the pulse of a continent: expanding site-based research infrastructure for regional- to continental-scale ecology Peters, Debra P. C.; Loescher, Henry W.; SanClements, Michael D. Ecosphere, Vol. 5, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1890/ES13-00295.1	journal	March 2014
Vegetation change and land tenure in Mexico: A country-wide analysis Bonilla-Moheno, Martha; Redo, Daniel J.; Aide, T. Mitchell Land Use Policy, Vol. 30, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2012.04.002	journal	January 2013
The contributions of land-use change, CO ₂ fertilization, and climate variability to the Eastern US carbon sink Albani, Marco; Medvigy, David; Hurtt, George C. Global Change Biology, Vol. 12, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01254.x	journal	December 2006
Assimilation exceeds respiration sensitivity to drought: A FLUXNET synthesis Schwalm, Christopher R.; Williams, Christopher A.; Schaefer, Kevin Global Change Biology, Vol. 16, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01991.x	journal	February 2010
Coordinated distributed experiments: an emerging tool for testing global hypotheses in ecology and environmental science Fraser, Lauchlan H.; Henry, Hugh AL; Carlyle, Cameron N. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, Vol. 11, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1890/110279	journal	April 2013
Shifting plant phenology in response to global change Cleland, E.; Chuine, I.; Menzel, A. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Vol. 22, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2007.04.003	journal	July 2007
On the relationship between niche and distribution Pulliam, H. R. Ecology Letters, Vol. 3, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1461-0248.2000.00143.x	journal	July 2000
Global Consequences of Land Use Foley, J. A. Science, Vol. 309, Issue 5734 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1111772	journal	July 2005
Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change Parmesan, Camille Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, Vol. 37, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110100	journal	December 2006
Beyond Predictions: Biodiversity Conservation in a Changing Climate Dawson, T. P.; Jackson, S. T.; House, J. I. Science, Vol. 332, Issue 6025 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1200303	journal	March 2011
Rainfall Variability, Carbon Cycling, and Plant Species Diversity in a Mesic Grassland Knapp, A. K. Science, Vol. 298, Issue 5601 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1076347	journal	December 2002
Modelling range dynamics under global change: which framework and why? Lurgi, Miguel; Brook, Barry W.; Saltré, Frédérik Methods in Ecology and Evolution, Vol. 6, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.12315	journal	December 2014
Deforestation and Reforestation of Latin America and the Caribbean (2001-2010) Aide, T. Mitchell; Clark, Matthew L.; Grau, H. Ricardo Biotropica, Vol. 45, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1744-7429.2012.00908.x	journal	August 2012
Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Pearson, Richard G.; Dawson, Terence P. Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 12, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1466-822X.2003.00042.x	journal	September 2003
Impacts of forest cover change on ecosystem services in high Andean mountains Balthazar, Vincent; Vanacker, Veerle; Molina, Armando Ecological Indicators, Vol. 48 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.07.043	journal	January 2015
Catastrophic Windthrow in the Presettlement Forests of Wisconsin Canham, Charles D.; Loucks, Orie L. Ecology, Vol. 65, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.2307/1938053	journal	June 1984
East African megadroughts between 135 and 75 thousand years ago and bearing on early-modern human origins Scholz, C. A.; Johnson, T. C.; Cohen, A. S. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 104, Issue 42 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0703874104	journal	September 2007
The Roles of Dispersal, Fecundity, and Predation in the Population Persistence of an Oak (Quercus engelmannii) under Global Change Conlisk, Erin; Lawson, Dawn; Syphard, Alexandra D. PLoS ONE, Vol. 7, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0036391	journal	May 2012
Disturbance Dynamics and Ecological Response: The Contribution of Long-Term Ecological Research Turner, Monica G.; Collins, Scott L.; Lugo, Ariel L. BioScience, Vol. 53, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1641/0006-3568(2003)053[0046:DDAERT]2.0.CO;2	journal	January 2003
Using long-term ecosystem service and biodiversity data to study the impacts and adaptation options in response to climate change: insights from the global ILTER sites network Vihervaara, Petteri; D’Amato, Dalia; Forsius, Martin Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, Vol. 5, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2012.11.002	journal	March 2013
An integrated conceptual framework for long‐term social–ecological research Collins, Scott L.; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Swinton, Scott M. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, Vol. 9, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1890/100068	journal	November 2010
Large-scale recruitment limitation in Mediterranean pines: the role of Quercus ilex and forest successional advance as key regional drivers : Large-scale pine recruitment limitation Carnicer, Jofre; Coll, Marta; Pons, Xavier Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 23, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12111	journal	September 2013
Does functional type vulnerability to multiple threats depend on spatial context in Mediterranean-climate regions? Syphard, Alexandra D.; Regan, Helen M.; Franklin, Janet Diversity and Distributions, Vol. 19, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12076	journal	March 2013
Projected carbon stocks in the conterminous USA with land use and variable fire regimes Bachelet, Dominique; Ferschweiler, Ken; Sheehan, Timothy J. Global Change Biology, Vol. 21, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13048	journal	October 2015
Geographic range predicts photosynthetic and growth response to warming in co-occurring tree species Reich, Peter B.; Sendall, Kerrie M.; Rice, Karen Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2497	journal	January 2015
Carbon Budget of the Southeastern U.S. Biota: Analysis of Historical Change in Trend from Source to Sink Delcourt, H. R.; Harris, W. F. Science, Vol. 210, Issue 4467 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.210.4467.321	journal	October 1980
Cross-scale modeling of surface temperature and tree seedling establishment in mountain landscapes Dingman, John R.; Sweet, Lynn C.; McCullough, Ian Ecological Processes, Vol. 2, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1186/2192-1709-2-30	journal	October 2013
Evaluation of assisted colonization strategies under global change for a rare, fire‐dependent plant Regan, Helen M.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Franklin, Janet Global Change Biology, Vol. 18, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02586.x	journal	November 2011
Impacts of climate change on natural forest productivity - evidence since the middle of the 20th century Boisvenue, Celine; Running, Steven W. Global Change Biology, Vol. 12, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01134.x	journal	May 2006
Moving beyond static species distribution models in support of conservation biogeography: Moving beyond static species distribution models Franklin, Janet Diversity and Distributions, Vol. 16, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2010.00641.x	journal	April 2010
MODERN ANALOGS IN QUATERNARY PALEOECOLOGY: Here Today, Gone Yesterday, Gone Tomorrow? Jackson, Stephen T.; Williams, John W. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Vol. 32, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.earth.32.101802.120435	journal	May 2004
Early indicators of change: divergent climate envelopes between tree life stages imply range shifts in the western United States: Early indications of tree range shift Bell, David M.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, William K. Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 23, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12109	journal	October 2013
Pinus jeffreyi establishment along a forest-shrub ecotone in eastern California, USA Alpert, H.; Loik, M. E. Journal of Arid Environments, Vol. 90 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2012.09.017	journal	March 2013
Appropriateness of full-, partial- and no-dispersal scenarios in climate change impact modelling Bateman, Brooke L.; Murphy, Helen T.; Reside, April E. Diversity and Distributions, Vol. 19, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12107	journal	June 2013
A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems Parmesan, Camille; Yohe, Gary Nature, Vol. 421, Issue 6918 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01286	journal	January 2003
Reassessing global change research priorities in mediterranean terrestrial ecosystems: how far have we come and where do we go from here?: Global change research in MTEs Doblas-Miranda, E.; Martínez-Vilalta, J.; Lloret, F. Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 24, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12224	journal	September 2014
Spatial perspectives in state-and-transition models: a missing link to land management?: Spatial state-and-transition models Bestelmeyer, Brandon T.; Goolsby, Darroc P.; Archer, Steven R. Journal of Applied Ecology, Vol. 48, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2011.01982.x	journal	March 2011
Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Karoly, David; Vicarelli, Marta Nature, Vol. 453, Issue 7193 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06937	journal	May 2008
Is climate an important driver of post-European vegetation change in the Eastern United States? Nowacki, Gregory J.; Abrams, Marc D. Global Change Biology, Vol. 21, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12663	journal	July 2014
Global Percent Tree Cover at a Spatial Resolution of 500 Meters: First Results of the MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields Algorithm Hansen, M. C.; DeFries, R. S.; Townshend, J. R. G. Earth Interactions, Vol. 7, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1175/1087-3562(2003)007<0001:GPTCAA>2.0.CO;2	journal	October 2003
Effects of climate change and urban development on the distribution and conservation of vegetation in a Mediterranean type ecosystem Beltrán, Bray J.; Franklin, Janet; Syphard, Alexandra D. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, Vol. 28, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1080/13658816.2013.846472	journal	October 2013
Dual impacts of climate change: forest migration and turnover through life history Zhu, Kai; Woodall, Christopher W.; Ghosh, Souparno Global Change Biology, Vol. 20, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12382	journal	October 2013
Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity Lambin, Eric F.; Meyfroidt, Patrick Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 108, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1100480108	journal	February 2011
A new model to simulate climate-change impacts on forest succession for local land management Yospin, Gabriel I.; Bridgham, Scott D.; Neilson, Ronald P. Ecological Applications, Vol. 25, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1890/13-0906.1	journal	January 2015
Incorporating movement in species distribution models Miller, Jennifer A.; Holloway, Paul Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment, Vol. 39, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133315580890	journal	April 2015
The effects of forest harvest intensity in combination with wind disturbance on carbon dynamics in Lake States Mesic Forests Scheller, Robert M.; Hua, Dong; Bolstad, Paul V. Ecological Modelling, Vol. 222, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.09.009	journal	January 2011
How fast and far might tree species migrate in the eastern United States due to climate change? Iverson, Louis R.; Schwartz, M. W.; Prasad, Anantha M. Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 13, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-822X.2004.00093.x	journal	May 2004
Next-generation dynamic global vegetation models: learning from community ecology Scheiter, Simon; Langan, Liam; Higgins, Steven I. New Phytologist, Vol. 198, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.12210	journal	March 2013
The legacy of episodic climatic events in shaping temperate, broadleaf forests Pederson, Neil; Dyer, James M.; McEwan, Ryan W. Ecological Monographs, Vol. 84, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1890/13-1025.1	journal	November 2014
Effect of increasing CO ₂ on the terrestrial carbon cycle Schimel, David; Stephens, Britton B.; Fisher, Joshua B. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1407302112	journal	December 2014
Climate remains an important driver of post-European vegetation change in the eastern United States Pederson, Neil; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Dyer, James M. Global Change Biology, Vol. 21, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12779	journal	December 2014
Beyond Global Warming: Ecology and Global Change Vitousek, Peter M. Ecology, Vol. 75, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.2307/1941591	journal	October 1994
A minimal model of fire-vegetation feedbacks and disturbance stochasticity generates alternative stable states in grassland–shrubland–woodland systems Batllori, Enric; Ackerly, David D.; Moritz, Max A. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 10, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/3/034018	journal	March 2015
An overview of MODIS Land data processing and product status Justice, C. O.; Townshend, J. R. G.; Vermote, E. F. Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 83, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0034-4257(02)00084-6	journal	November 2002
On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die-off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene Allen, Craig D.; Breshears, David D.; McDowell, Nate G. Ecosphere, Vol. 6, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1890/ES15-00203.1	journal	August 2015
Tree mortality predicted from drought-induced vascular damage Anderegg, William R. L.; Flint, Alan; Huang, Cho-ying Nature Geoscience, Vol. 8, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2400	journal	March 2015
The emergence and promise of functional biogeography Violle, C.; Reich, P. B.; Pacala, S. W. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 38 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1415442111	journal	September 2014
Forest inventory and analysis: a national inventory and monitoring program Smith, W. Brad Environmental Pollution, Vol. 116 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0269-7491(01)00255-X	journal	March 2002
Temperature sensitivity of drought-induced tree mortality portends increased regional die-off under global-change-type drought Adams, Henry D.; Guardiola-Claramonte, Maite; Barron-Gafford, Greg A. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0901438106	journal	April 2009
How climate, migration ability and habitat fragmentation affect the projected future distribution of European beech Saltré, Frédérik; Duputié, Anne; Gaucherel, Cédric Global Change Biology, Vol. 21, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12771	journal	December 2014
Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change-type drought Breshears, D. D.; Cobb, N. S.; Rich, P. M. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 102, Issue 42 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0505734102	journal	October 2005
Forecasts of habitat loss and fragmentation due to urban growth are sensitive to source of input data Syphard, Alexandra D.; Clarke, Keith C.; Franklin, Janet Journal of Environmental Management, Vol. 92, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2011.03.014	journal	July 2011
Uncertainty in assessing the impacts of global change with coupled dynamic species distribution and population models Conlisk, Erin; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Franklin, Janet Global Change Biology, Vol. 19, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12090	journal	December 2012
The Importance of Land-Use Legacies to Ecology and Conservation Foster, David; Swanson, Frederick; Aber, John BioScience, Vol. 53, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1641/0006-3568(2003)053[0077:TIOLUL]2.0.CO;2	journal	January 2003
Increased tree carbon storage in response to nitrogen deposition in the US Quinn Thomas, R.; Canham, Charles D.; Weathers, Kathleen C. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 3, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo721	journal	December 2009
FLUXNET: A New Tool to Study the Temporal and Spatial Variability of Ecosystem–Scale Carbon Dioxide, Water Vapor, and Energy Flux Densities Baldocchi, Dennis; Falge, Eva; Gu, Lianhong Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 82, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<2415:FANTTS>2.3.CO;2	journal	November 2001
Impacts of changing climate and land use on vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean ecosystem: insights from paleoecology and dynamic modeling Henne, Paul D.; Elkin, Ché; Colombaroli, Daniele Landscape Ecology, Vol. 28, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-012-9782-8	journal	July 2012
Detection and Attribution of Recent Climate Change: A Status Report Barnett, T. P.; Hasselmann, K.; Chelliah, M. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 80, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<2631:DAAORC>2.0.CO;2	journal	December 1999
Assessing potential climate change effects on vegetation using a linked model approach Halofsky, Jessica E.; Hemstrom, Miles A.; Conklin, David R. Ecological Modelling, Vol. 266 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.07.003	journal	September 2013
A tree and climate assessment tool for modelling ecosystem response to climate change Nitschke, Craig R.; Innes, John L. Ecological Modelling, Vol. 210, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.07.026	journal	January 2008
Effects of institutional changes on land use: agricultural land abandonment during the transition from state-command to market-driven economies in post-Soviet Eastern Europe Prishchepov, Alexander V.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Baumann, Matthias Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 7, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024021	journal	June 2012
An individualistic model of vegetation stand dynamics Moore, Andrew D.; Noble, Ian R. Journal of Environmental Management, Vol. 31, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0301-4797(05)80015-5	journal	July 1990
Tracking forest phenology and seasonal physiology using digital repeat photography: a critical assessment Keenan, T. F.; Darby, B.; Felts, E. Ecological Applications, Vol. 24, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1890/13-0652.1	journal	September 2014
The influence of interspecific interactions on species range expansion rates Svenning, Jens-Christian; Gravel, Dominique; Holt, Robert D. Ecography, Vol. 37, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2013.00574.x	journal	January 2014

Similar Records

Improving collaborations between empiricists and modelers to advance grassland community dynamics in ecosystem models

Journal Article · Tue Nov 03 00:00:00 EST 2020 · New Phytologist · OSTI ID:1239849

Wilcox, Kevin R.; Komatsu, Kimberly J.; Avolio, Meghan L.; +21 more

Forest response to increased disturbance in the central Amazon and comparison to western Amazonian forests

Journal Article · Mon Oct 20 00:00:00 EDT 2014 · Biogeosciences (Online) · OSTI ID:1239849

Holm, J. A.; Chambers, J. Q.; Collins, W. D.; +1 more

Reviews and syntheses: Changing ecosystem influences on soil thermal regimes in northern high-latitude permafrost regions

Journal Article · Mon May 07 00:00:00 EDT 2018 · Biogeosciences Discussions (Online) · OSTI ID:1239849

Loranty, Michael M.; Abbott, Benjamin W.; Blok, Daan; +16 more

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
climate change
drought
forests
global change
land-use change

Title: Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics

Citation Formats

References (140)

Similar Records

Related Subjects