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Title: Top-down estimate of methane emissions in California using a mesoscale inverse modeling technique: The South Coast Air Basin

Journal Article · · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (Online)
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD023002· OSTI ID:1235292
 [1];  [2];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [3];  [4];  [1];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [8];  [9];  [10];  [7]
  1. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States); Univ. of Colorado Boulder, CO (United States)
  2. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States); Univ. of Colorado Boulder, CO (United States); National Centre for Scientific Research-Mixed Organizations (CNRS-UMR), Paris (France)
  3. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States). Earth System Research Lab.; Univ. of Colorado Boulder, CO (United States)
  4. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States; Univ. of Colorado Boulder, CO (United States)
  5. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
  6. Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Now at Ramboll Environ US Corporation, Novato, CA (United States)
  7. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States)
  8. Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States)
  9. Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)
  10. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
+ Show Author Affiliations

Methane (CH4) is the primary component of natural gas and has a larger global warming potential than CO2. Some recent top-down studies based on observations showed CH4 emissions in California's South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) were greater than those expected from population-apportioned bottom-up state inventories. In this study, we quantify CH4 emissions with an advanced mesoscale inverse modeling system at a resolution of 8 km × 8 km, using aircraft measurements in the SoCAB during the 2010 Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change campaign to constrain the inversion. To simulate atmospheric transport, we use the FLEXible PARTicle-Weather Research and Forecasting (FLEXPART-WRF) Lagrangian particle dispersion model driven by three configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model. We determine surface fluxes of CH4 using a Bayesian least squares method in a four-dimensional inversion. Simulated CH4 concentrations with the posterior emission inventory achieve much better correlations with the measurements (R2 = 0.7) than using the prior inventory (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Emission Inventory 2005, R2 = 0.5). The emission estimates for CH4 in the posterior, 46.3 ± 9.2 Mg CH4/h, are consistent with published observation-based estimates. Changes in the spatial distribution of CH4 emissions in the SoCAB between the prior and posterior inventories are discussed. Missing or underestimated emissions from dairies, the oil/gas system, and landfills in the SoCAB seem to explain the differences between the prior and posterior inventories. Furthermore, we estimate that dairies contributed 5.9 ± 1.7 Mg CH4/h and the two sectors of oil and gas industries (production and downstream) and landfills together contributed 39.6 ± 8.1 Mg CH4/h in the SoCAB.

Research Organization:
Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC04-94AL85000
OSTI ID:
1235292
Report Number(s):
SAND-2015-4909J; 594363
Journal Information:
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (Online), Vol. 120, Issue 13; ISSN 2169-8996
Publisher:
American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 32 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Cited By (8)

Inversion Estimates of Lognormally Distributed Methane Emission Rates From the Haynesville‐Bossier Oil and Gas Production Region Using Airborne Measurements journal March 2019
Spatio‐temporally Resolved Methane Fluxes From the Los Angeles Megacity journal May 2019
Reducing errors in aircraft atmospheric inversion estimates of point-source emissions: the Aliso Canyon natural gas leak as a natural tracer experiment journal March 2018
Monthly trends of methane emissions in Los Angeles from 2011 to 2015 inferred by CLARS-FTS observations journal January 2016
Carbon dioxide and methane measurements from the Los Angeles Megacity Carbon Project – Part 1: calibration, urban enhancements, and uncertainty estimates journal January 2017
Southern California megacity CO 2 , CH 4 , and CO flux estimates using ground- and space-based remote sensing and a Lagrangian model journal January 2018
Impacts of physical parameterization on prediction of ethane concentrations for oil and gas emissions in WRF-Chem journal January 2018
Intercomparison of atmospheric trace gas dispersion models: Barnett Shale case study journal January 2019

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Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
methane
emission inventory
inverse modeling
Los Angeles