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Title: Bayes Method Plant Aging Risk Analysis

Abstract

DORIAN is an integrated package for performing Bayesian aging analysis of reliability data; e.g. for identifying trends in component failure rates and/or outage durations as a function of time. The user must specify several alternatives hypothesized aging models (i.e. possible trends) along with prior probabilities indicating the subjective probability that each trend is actually the correct one. DORIAN then uses component failure and/or repair data over time to update these prior probabilities and develop a posterior probability for each aging model, representing the probability that each model is the correct one in light of the observed data rather than a priori. Mean, median, and 5th and 95th percentile trends are also compiled from the posterior probabilities.

Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
DOE/IO; NRC/RES
Contributing Org.:
Not Specified
OSTI Identifier:
1230161
Report Number(s):
DORIAN; 000330IBMPC00
DOE Contract Number:  
AC07-76ID01570
Resource Type:
Software
Software Revision:
00
Software Package Number:
000330
Software Package Contents:
NESC Note 92-07; Software Abstract; EGG-SSRE-8991; Media Includes Executable, Sample Problem, Control Information;\ 1 3.5 Diskette
Software CPU:
IBMPC
Open Source:
No
Source Code Available:
No
Other Software Info:
The source is not supplied as part of this package.
Related Software:
DORIAN is compatible with the RISKMAN system for risk analysis, Pickard, Lowe, and Garrick, Inc. proprietary workstation software. The MicroEMACS 3.8 editor is provided as part of the DORIAN software package.
Country of Publication:
United States

Citation Formats

. Bayes Method Plant Aging Risk Analysis. Computer software. Vers. 00. DOE/IO; NRC/RES. 13 Mar. 1992. Web.
. (1992, March 13). Bayes Method Plant Aging Risk Analysis (Version 00) [Computer software].
. Bayes Method Plant Aging Risk Analysis. Computer software. Version 00. March 13, 1992.
@misc{osti_1230161,
title = {Bayes Method Plant Aging Risk Analysis, Version 00},
author = {},
abstractNote = {DORIAN is an integrated package for performing Bayesian aging analysis of reliability data; e.g. for identifying trends in component failure rates and/or outage durations as a function of time. The user must specify several alternatives hypothesized aging models (i.e. possible trends) along with prior probabilities indicating the subjective probability that each trend is actually the correct one. DORIAN then uses component failure and/or repair data over time to update these prior probabilities and develop a posterior probability for each aging model, representing the probability that each model is the correct one in light of the observed data rather than a priori. Mean, median, and 5th and 95th percentile trends are also compiled from the posterior probabilities.},
doi = {},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1230161}, year = {Fri Mar 13 00:00:00 EST 1992},
month = {Fri Mar 13 00:00:00 EST 1992},
note =
}

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