Toward “optimal” integration of terrestrial biosphere models

Schwalm, Christopher R.; Huntingzger, Deborah; Fisher, Joshua B.; Michalak, A. M.; Bowman, Kevin; Cias, Philippe; Cook, Robert B.; El-Masri, Bassil; Hayes, Daniel J.; Huang, Maoyi; Ito, A.; Jain, Atul K.; King, Anthony W.; Lei, Huimin; Liu, Junjie; Lu, Chaoqun; Mao, Jiafu; Peng, Shushi; Poulter, Benjamin; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Schaefer, Kevin; Shi, Xiaoying; Tao, Bo; Tian, Hanqin; Wang, Weile; Wei, Yaxing; Yang, Jia; Zeng, Ning

doi:10.1002/2015GL064002

Title: Toward “optimal” integration of terrestrial biosphere models

Journal Article · Wed Jun 10 00:00:00 EDT 2015 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064002· OSTI ID:1221484

Schwalm, Christopher R.; Huntingzger, Deborah; Fisher, Joshua B.; Michalak, A. M.; Bowman, Kevin; Cias, Philippe; Cook, Robert B.; El-Masri, Bassil; Hayes, Daniel J.; Huang, Maoyi; Ito, A.; Jain, Atul K.; King, Anthony W.; Lei, Huimin; Liu, Junjie; Lu, Chaoqun; Mao, Jiafu; Peng, Shushi; Poulter, Benjamin; Ricciuto, Daniel M. more »

Multi-model ensembles (MME) are commonplace in Earth system modeling. Here we perform MME integration using a 10-member ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) from the Multi-scale synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP). We contrast optimal (skill-based for present-day carbon cycling) versus naïve (“one model – one vote”) integration. MsTMIP optimal and naïve mean land sink strength estimates (–1.16 vs. –1.15 Pg C per annum respectively) are statistically indistinguishable. This holds also for grid cell values and extends to gross uptake, biomass, and net ecosystem productivity. TBM skill is similarly indistinguishable. The added complexity of skill-based integration does not materially change MME values. This suggests that carbon metabolism has predictability limits and/or that all models and references are misspecified. Resolving this issue requires addressing specific uncertainty types (initial conditions, structure, references) and a change in model development paradigms currently dominant in the TBM community.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

DOE Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1221484

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-110543; KP1703020

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 11; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Photosynthetic productivity and its efficiencies in ISIMIP2a biome models: benchmarking for impact assessment studies Ito, Akihiko; Nishina, Kazuya; Reyer, Christopher P. O. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7a19	journal	July 2017
Evaluation of simulated soil carbon dynamics in Arctic-Boreal ecosystems Huntzinger, D. N.; Schaefer, K.; Schwalm, C. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 15, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6784	journal	February 2020
Divergence in land surface modeling: linking spread to structure Schwalm, Christopher R.; Schaefer, Kevin; Fisher, Joshua B. Environmental Research Communications, Vol. 1, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab4a8a	journal	October 2019
Improved simulation of carbon and water fluxes by assimilating multi-layer soil temperature and moisture into process-based biogeochemical model Yan, Min; Li, Zengyuan; Tian, Xin Forest Ecosystems, Vol. 6, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1186/s40663-019-0171-5	journal	April 2019
Comprehensive Evaluation of Machine Learning Techniques for Estimating the Responses of Carbon Fluxes to Climatic Forces in Different Terrestrial Ecosystems Dou, Xianming; Yang, Yongguo Atmosphere, Vol. 9, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9030083	journal	February 2018
Reviews and syntheses: An empirical spatiotemporal description of the global surface–atmosphere carbon fluxes: opportunities and data limitations Zscheischler, Jakob; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Avitabile, Valerio Biogeosciences, Vol. 14, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3685-2017	journal	January 2017
Reliability ensemble averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties Exbrayat, Jean-François; Bloom, A. Anthony; Falloon, Pete Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-153-2018	journal	January 2018
Terrestrial ecosystem process model Biome-BGCMuSo v4.0: summary of improvements and new modeling possibilities Hidy, Dóra; Barcza, Zoltán; Marjanović, Hrvoje Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4405-2016	journal	January 2016
A Bayesian ensemble data assimilation to constrain model parameters and land-use carbon emissions Lienert, Sebastian; Joos, Fortunat Biogeosciences, Vol. 15, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2909-2018	journal	January 2018
Reviews and syntheses: An empirical spatiotemporal description of the global surface-atmosphere carbon fluxes: Opportunities and data limitations Jakob, Zscheischler,; D., Mahecha, Miguel; Valerio, Avitabile, ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000192415	text	January 2017
A Bayesian ensemble data assimilation to constrain model parameters and land-use carbon emissions Lienert, Sebastian; Joos, Fortunat Copernicus Publications https://doi.org/10.7892/boris.116577	text	January 2018

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