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Title: Understanding the contribution of non-carbon dioxide gases in deep mitigation scenarios

Abstract

The combined 2010 emissions of methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and the fluorinated gasses (F-gas) account for about 20-30% of total emissions and about 30% of radiative forcing. At the moment, most studies looking at reaching ambitious climate targets project the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) to be reduced to zero (or less) by the end of the century. As for non-CO2 gases, the mitigation potential seem to be more constrained, we find that by the end of the century in the current deep mitigation scenarios non-CO2 emissions could form the lion’s share of remaining greenhouse gas emissions. In order to support effective climate policy strategies, in this paper we provide a more in-depth look at the role of non-CO2¬ emission sources (CH4, N2O and F-gases) in achieving deep mitigation targets (radiative forcing target of 2.8 W/m2 in 2100). Specifically, we look at the sectorial mitigation potential and the remaining non-CO2 emissions. By including a set of different models, we provide some insights into the associated uncertainty. Most of the remaining methane emissions in 2100 in the climate mitigation scenario come from the livestock sector. Strong reductions are seen in the energy supply sector across all models. For N2O, lessmore » reduction potential is seen compared to methane and the sectoral differences are larger between the models. The paper shows that the assumptions on remaining non-CO2 emissions are critical for the feasibility of reaching ambitious climate targets and the associated costs.« less

Authors:
; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1221463
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-105819
KP1703030
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Global Environmental Change, 33:142-153
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Global Environmental Change, 33:142-153
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Gernaat, David, Calvin, Katherine V., Lucas, Paul, Luderer, Gunnar, Otto, Sander, Rao, Shilpa, Strefler, Jessica, and Van Vuuren, Detlef. Understanding the contribution of non-carbon dioxide gases in deep mitigation scenarios. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.04.010.
Gernaat, David, Calvin, Katherine V., Lucas, Paul, Luderer, Gunnar, Otto, Sander, Rao, Shilpa, Strefler, Jessica, & Van Vuuren, Detlef. Understanding the contribution of non-carbon dioxide gases in deep mitigation scenarios. United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.04.010
Gernaat, David, Calvin, Katherine V., Lucas, Paul, Luderer, Gunnar, Otto, Sander, Rao, Shilpa, Strefler, Jessica, and Van Vuuren, Detlef. 2015. "Understanding the contribution of non-carbon dioxide gases in deep mitigation scenarios". United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.04.010.
@article{osti_1221463,
title = {Understanding the contribution of non-carbon dioxide gases in deep mitigation scenarios},
author = {Gernaat, David and Calvin, Katherine V. and Lucas, Paul and Luderer, Gunnar and Otto, Sander and Rao, Shilpa and Strefler, Jessica and Van Vuuren, Detlef},
abstractNote = {The combined 2010 emissions of methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and the fluorinated gasses (F-gas) account for about 20-30% of total emissions and about 30% of radiative forcing. At the moment, most studies looking at reaching ambitious climate targets project the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) to be reduced to zero (or less) by the end of the century. As for non-CO2 gases, the mitigation potential seem to be more constrained, we find that by the end of the century in the current deep mitigation scenarios non-CO2 emissions could form the lion’s share of remaining greenhouse gas emissions. In order to support effective climate policy strategies, in this paper we provide a more in-depth look at the role of non-CO2¬ emission sources (CH4, N2O and F-gases) in achieving deep mitigation targets (radiative forcing target of 2.8 W/m2 in 2100). Specifically, we look at the sectorial mitigation potential and the remaining non-CO2 emissions. By including a set of different models, we provide some insights into the associated uncertainty. Most of the remaining methane emissions in 2100 in the climate mitigation scenario come from the livestock sector. Strong reductions are seen in the energy supply sector across all models. For N2O, less reduction potential is seen compared to methane and the sectoral differences are larger between the models. The paper shows that the assumptions on remaining non-CO2 emissions are critical for the feasibility of reaching ambitious climate targets and the associated costs.},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.04.010},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1221463}, journal = {Global Environmental Change, 33:142-153},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Jul 01 00:00:00 EDT 2015},
month = {Wed Jul 01 00:00:00 EDT 2015}
}