Projections of Future Summertime Ozone over the U.S.
Abstract
This study uses a regional fully coupled chemistry-transport model to assess changes in surface ozone over the summertime U.S. between present and a 2050 future time period at high spatial resolution (12 km grid spacing) under the SRES A2 climate and RCP8.5 anthropogenic pre-cursor emission scenario. The impact of predicted changes in climate and global background ozone is estimated to increase surface ozone over most of the U.S; the 5th - 95th percentile range for daily 8-hour maximum surface ozone increases from 31-79 ppbV to 30-87 ppbV between the present and future time periods. The analysis of a set of meteorological drivers suggests that these mostly will add to increasing ozone, but the set of simulations conducted does not allow to separate this effect from that through enhanced global background ozone. Statistically the most robust positive feedbacks are through increased temperature, biogenic emissions and solar radiation. Stringent emission controls can counteract these feedbacks and if considered, we estimate large reductions in surface ozone with the 5th-95th percentile reduced to 27-55 ppbV. A comparison of the high-resolution projections to global model projections shows that even though the global model is biased high in surface ozone compared to the regional model andmore »
- Authors:
-
- NCAR, Boulder, CO (United States)
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- NCAR, Boulder, CO (United States); Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
- NCAR, Boulder, CO (United States); North-West Univ., Potchefstroom (South Africa)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1212247
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-98570
Journal ID: ISSN 0148-0227; KP1701000
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- Resource Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 119; Journal Issue: 9; Journal ID: ISSN 0148-0227
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 58 GEOSCIENCES
Citation Formats
Pfister, G. G., Walters, Stacy, Lamarque, J. F., Fast, Jerome D., Barth, Mary, Wong, John, Done, James, Holland, Greg, and Bruyere, Cindy. Projections of Future Summertime Ozone over the U.S.. United States: N. p., 2014.
Web. doi:10.1002/2013JD020932.
Pfister, G. G., Walters, Stacy, Lamarque, J. F., Fast, Jerome D., Barth, Mary, Wong, John, Done, James, Holland, Greg, & Bruyere, Cindy. Projections of Future Summertime Ozone over the U.S.. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020932
Pfister, G. G., Walters, Stacy, Lamarque, J. F., Fast, Jerome D., Barth, Mary, Wong, John, Done, James, Holland, Greg, and Bruyere, Cindy. 2014.
"Projections of Future Summertime Ozone over the U.S.". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020932.
@article{osti_1212247,
title = {Projections of Future Summertime Ozone over the U.S.},
author = {Pfister, G. G. and Walters, Stacy and Lamarque, J. F. and Fast, Jerome D. and Barth, Mary and Wong, John and Done, James and Holland, Greg and Bruyere, Cindy},
abstractNote = {This study uses a regional fully coupled chemistry-transport model to assess changes in surface ozone over the summertime U.S. between present and a 2050 future time period at high spatial resolution (12 km grid spacing) under the SRES A2 climate and RCP8.5 anthropogenic pre-cursor emission scenario. The impact of predicted changes in climate and global background ozone is estimated to increase surface ozone over most of the U.S; the 5th - 95th percentile range for daily 8-hour maximum surface ozone increases from 31-79 ppbV to 30-87 ppbV between the present and future time periods. The analysis of a set of meteorological drivers suggests that these mostly will add to increasing ozone, but the set of simulations conducted does not allow to separate this effect from that through enhanced global background ozone. Statistically the most robust positive feedbacks are through increased temperature, biogenic emissions and solar radiation. Stringent emission controls can counteract these feedbacks and if considered, we estimate large reductions in surface ozone with the 5th-95th percentile reduced to 27-55 ppbV. A comparison of the high-resolution projections to global model projections shows that even though the global model is biased high in surface ozone compared to the regional model and compared to observations, both the global and the regional model predict similar changes in ozone between the present and future time periods. However, on smaller spatial scales, the regional predictions show more pronounced changes between urban and rural regimes that cannot be resolved at the coarse resolution of global model. In addition, the sign of the changes in overall ozone mixing ratios can be different between the global and the regional predictions in certain regions, such as the Western U.S. This study confirms the key role of emission control strategies in future air quality predictions and demonstrates the need for considering degradation of air quality with future climate change in emission policy making. It also illustrates the need for high resolution modeling when the objective is to address regional and local air quality or establish links to human health and society.},
doi = {10.1002/2013JD020932},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1212247},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
issn = {0148-0227},
number = 9,
volume = 119,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon May 05 00:00:00 EDT 2014},
month = {Mon May 05 00:00:00 EDT 2014}
}