HTGR Economic / Business Analysis and Trade Studies Market Analysis for HTGR Technologies and Applications
- Ultra Safe Nuclear Corporation, Los Alamos, NM (United States)
This report provides supplemental information to the assessment of target markets provided in Appendix A of the 2012 Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Industry Alliance (NIA) business plan [NIA 2012] for deployment of High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors (HTGRs) in the 2025 – 2050 time frame. This report largely reiterates the [NIA 2012] assessment for potential deployment of 400 to 800 HTGR modules (100 to 200 HTGR plants with 4 reactor modules) in the 600-MWt class in North America by 2050 for electricity generation, co-generation of steam and electricity, oil sands operations, hydrogen production, and synthetic fuels production (e.g., coal to liquids). As the result of increased natural gas supply from hydraulic fracturing, the current and historically low prices of natural gas remain a significant barrier to deployment of HTGRs and other nuclear reactor concepts in the U.S. However, based on U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Information Agency (EIA) data, U.S. natural gas prices are expected to increase by the 2030 – 2040 timeframe when a significant number of HTGR modules could be deployed. An evaluation of more recent EIA 2013 data confirms the assumptions in [NIA 2012] of future natural gas prices in the range of approximately $7/MMBtu to $10/MMBtu during the 2030 – 2040 timeframe. Natural gas prices in this range will make HTGR energy prices competitive with natural gas, even in the absence of carbon-emissions penalties. Exhibit ES-1 presents the North American projections in each market segment including a characterization of the market penetration logic. Adjustments made to the 2012 data (and reflected in Exhibit ES-1) include normalization to the slightly larger 625MWt reactor module, segregation between steam cycle and more advanced (higher outlet temperature) modules, and characterization of U.S. synthetic fuel process applications as a separate market segment.
- Research Organization:
- USDOE Office of Nuclear Energy, Science and Technology (NE) (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), Reactor Fleet and Advanced Reactor Development. Nuclear Reactor Technologies
- DOE Contract Number:
- NE-0000531
- OSTI ID:
- 1210033
- Report Number(s):
- USNC-NIA-G00001/Rev. 0
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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