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Title: Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

Abstract

Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economic systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. This article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of integrated assessment models to classify differences among models based on their carbon price responses. Model diagnostics can uncover patterns and provide insights into why, under a given scenario, certain types of models behave in observed ways. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnostic indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study with 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to more easily explain variations among policy-relevant model results.

Authors:
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1188884
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-93552
KP1703030
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 90(A):45-61
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 90(A):45-61
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
Climate policy; Integrated assessment models; Energy system models; Model diagnostics; Climate change economics

Citation Formats

Kriegler, Elmar, Petermann, Nils, Krey, Volker, Schwanitz, Jana, Luderer, Gunnar, Ashina, Shuichi, Bosetti, Valentina, Eom, Jiyong, Kitous, Alban, Mejean, Aurelie, Paroussos, Leonidas, Sano, Fuminori, Turton, Hal, Wilson, Charlie, and Van Vuuren, Detlef. Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.020.
Kriegler, Elmar, Petermann, Nils, Krey, Volker, Schwanitz, Jana, Luderer, Gunnar, Ashina, Shuichi, Bosetti, Valentina, Eom, Jiyong, Kitous, Alban, Mejean, Aurelie, Paroussos, Leonidas, Sano, Fuminori, Turton, Hal, Wilson, Charlie, & Van Vuuren, Detlef. Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy. United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.020
Kriegler, Elmar, Petermann, Nils, Krey, Volker, Schwanitz, Jana, Luderer, Gunnar, Ashina, Shuichi, Bosetti, Valentina, Eom, Jiyong, Kitous, Alban, Mejean, Aurelie, Paroussos, Leonidas, Sano, Fuminori, Turton, Hal, Wilson, Charlie, and Van Vuuren, Detlef. 2015. "Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy". United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.020.
@article{osti_1188884,
title = {Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy},
author = {Kriegler, Elmar and Petermann, Nils and Krey, Volker and Schwanitz, Jana and Luderer, Gunnar and Ashina, Shuichi and Bosetti, Valentina and Eom, Jiyong and Kitous, Alban and Mejean, Aurelie and Paroussos, Leonidas and Sano, Fuminori and Turton, Hal and Wilson, Charlie and Van Vuuren, Detlef},
abstractNote = {Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economic systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. This article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of integrated assessment models to classify differences among models based on their carbon price responses. Model diagnostics can uncover patterns and provide insights into why, under a given scenario, certain types of models behave in observed ways. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnostic indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study with 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to more easily explain variations among policy-relevant model results.},
doi = {10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.020},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1188884}, journal = {Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 90(A):45-61},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2015},
month = {Thu Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2015}
}