Spatially resolved estimation of ozone-related mortality in the United States under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their uncertainty

Journal Article · Sun Nov 16 00:00:00 EST 2014 · Climatic Change

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1290-1· OSTI ID:1188883

Kim, Young-Min ^[1]; Zhou, Ying ^[1]; Gao, Yang ^[2]; Fu, Joshua S. ^[3]; Johnson, Brent A. ^[4]; Huang, Cheng ^[5]; Liu, Yang ^[1]

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1. Emory Univ., Atlanta, GA (United States). Rollins School of Public Health, Dept. of Environmental Health
2. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Atmospheric Science and Global Change Div. (ASGC)
3. Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
4. Univ. of Rochester, NY (United States). Dept. of Biostatistics and Computational Biology
5. George Washington Univ., Washington, DC (United States). Milken Inst. School of Public Health, Dept. of Global Health and Department of Environmental and Occupational Health

We report that the spatial pattern of the uncertainty in air pollution-related health impacts due to climate change has rarely been studied due to the lack of high-resolution model simulations, especially under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the latest greenhouse gas emission pathways. We estimated future tropospheric ozone (O₃) and related excess mortality and evaluated the associated uncertainties in the continental United States under RCPs. Based on dynamically downscaled climate model simulations, we calculated changes in O₃ level at 12 km resolution between the future (2057 and 2059) and base years (2001–2004) under a low-to-medium emission scenario (RCP4.5) and a fossil fuel intensive emission scenario (RCP8.5). We then estimated the excess mortality attributable to changes in O₃. Finally, we analyzed the sensitivity of the excess mortality estimates to the input variables and the uncertainty in the excess mortality estimation using Monte Carlo simulations. O₃-related premature deaths in the continental U.S. were estimated to be 1312 deaths/year under RCP8.5 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 427 to 2198) and ₋2118 deaths/year under RCP4.5 (95 % CI: ₋3021 to ₋1216), when allowing for climate change and emissions reduction. The uncertainty of O₃-related excess mortality estimates was mainly caused by RCP emissions pathways. Finally, excess mortality estimates attributable to the combined effect of climate and emission changes on O₃ as well as the associated uncertainties vary substantially in space and so do the most influential input variables. Spatially resolved data is crucial to develop effective community level mitigation and adaptation policy.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Science (SC)
• Grant/Contract Number: AC05-76RL01830; AC05-00OR22725; U01 EH000405; 1R21ES020225; TG-ATM110009; UT-TENN0006
• OSTI ID: 1188883
• Report Number(s): PNNL-SA-97819; KP1703010
• Journal Information: Climatic Change, Vol. 128, Issue 1-2; ISSN 0165-0009
• Publisher: Springer
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
climate change
ozone
mortality
uncertainty
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
spatial variation