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Title: Projecting changes in annual hydropower generation using regional runoff data: An assessment of the United States federal hydropower plants

Journal Article · · Energy (Oxford)
 [1];  [2];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [3]
  1. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  2. BCS Inc., Wartburg, TN (United States)
  3. Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA (United States)
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Federal hydropower plants account for approximately half of installed US conventional hydropower capacity, and are an important part of the national renewable energy portfolio. Utilizing the strong linear relationship between the US Geological Survey WaterWatch runoff and annual hydropower generation, a runoff-based assessment approach is introduced in this study to project changes in annual and regional hydropower generation in multiple power marketing areas. Future climate scenarios are developed with a series of global and regional climate models, and the model output is bias-corrected to be consistent with observed data for the recent past. Using this approach, the median decrease in annual generation at federal projects is projected to be less than –2 TWh, with an estimated ensemble uncertainty of ±9 TWh. Although these estimates are similar to the recently observed variability in annual hydropower generation, and may therefore appear to be manageable, significantly seasonal runoff changes are projected and it may pose significant challenges in water systems with higher limits on reservoir storage and operational flexibility. Lastly, future assessments will be improved by incorporating next-generation climate models, by closer examination of extreme events and longer-term change, and by addressing the interactions among hydropower and other water uses.

Research Organization:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Wind and Water Technologies Office (EE-4W)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-00OR22725; SC005171
OSTI ID:
1185590
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1247851
Journal Information:
Energy (Oxford), Vol. 80, Issue 2015; ISSN 0360-5442
Publisher:
ElsevierCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 64 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Cited By (6)

Impact of climate variability on hydropower generation in an un-gauged catchment: Erathna run-of-the-river hydropower plant, Sri Lanka journal March 2019
A survey of analytical methods for inclusion in a new energy-water nexus knowledge discovery framework journal July 2018
The impacts of climate change on irrigation and crop production in Northeast China and implications for energy use and GHG Emission journal January 2018
The Impact of Climate Change on the Generation of Hydroelectric Power—A Case Study in Southern Spain journal September 2017
Non-stationary hydropower generation projections constrained by environmental and electricity grid operations over the western United States journal July 2018
Projected impacts of climate change on hydropower potential in China journal January 2016

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