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Title: Near-Term Acceleration In The Rate of Temperature Change

Anthropogenically-driven climate changes, which are expected to impact human and natural systems, are often expressed in terms of global-mean temperature . The rate of climate change over multi-decadal scales is also important, with faster rates of change resulting in less time for human and natural systems to adapt . We find that current trends in greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions are now moving the Earth system into a regime in terms of multi-decadal rates of change that are unprecedented for at least the last 1000 years. The rate of global-mean temperature increase in the CMIP5 archive over 40-year periods increases to 0.25±0.05 (1σ) °C per decade by 2020, an average greater than peak rates of change during the previous 1-2 millennia. Regional rates of change in Europe, North America and the Arctic are higher than the global average. Research on the impacts of such near-term rates of change is urgently needed.
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Journal Article
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Journal Name: Nature Climate Change, 5(4):333-336
Research Org:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (US)
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Country of Publication:
United States