Modeling High-Impact Weather and Climate: Lessons From a Tropical Cyclone Perspective
Abstract
Although the societal impact of a weather event increases with the rarity of the event, our current ability to assess extreme events and their impacts is limited by not only rarity but also by current model fidelity and a lack of understanding of the underlying physical processes. This challenge is driving fresh approaches to assess high-impact weather and climate. Recent lessons learned in modeling high-impact weather and climate are presented using the case of tropical cyclones as an illustrative example. Through examples using the Nested Regional Climate Model to dynamically downscale large-scale climate data the need to treat bias in the driving data is illustrated. Domain size, location, and resolution are also shown to be critical and should be guided by the need to: include relevant regional climate physical processes; resolve key impact parameters; and to accurately simulate the response to changes in external forcing. The notion of sufficient model resolution is introduced together with the added value in combining dynamical and statistical assessments to fill out the parent distribution of high-impact parameters. Finally, through the example of a tropical cyclone damage index, direct impact assessments are resented as powerful tools that distill complex datasets into concise statements on likelymore »
- Authors:
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1177297
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-97267
KP1703030
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- Resource Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal Name:
- Climatic Change, 129(3-4):381-395
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Climatic Change, 129(3-4):381-395
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- SIMULATION; WEATHER; CLIMATES; CYCLONES; modeling; high-impact; weather; climate; tropical; cyclone
Citation Formats
Done, James, Holland, Greg, Bruyere, Cindy, Leung, Lai-Yung R., and Suzuki-Parker, Asuka. Modeling High-Impact Weather and Climate: Lessons From a Tropical Cyclone Perspective. United States: N. p., 2013.
Web. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0954-6.
Done, James, Holland, Greg, Bruyere, Cindy, Leung, Lai-Yung R., & Suzuki-Parker, Asuka. Modeling High-Impact Weather and Climate: Lessons From a Tropical Cyclone Perspective. United States. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0954-6
Done, James, Holland, Greg, Bruyere, Cindy, Leung, Lai-Yung R., and Suzuki-Parker, Asuka. 2013.
"Modeling High-Impact Weather and Climate: Lessons From a Tropical Cyclone Perspective". United States. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0954-6.
@article{osti_1177297,
title = {Modeling High-Impact Weather and Climate: Lessons From a Tropical Cyclone Perspective},
author = {Done, James and Holland, Greg and Bruyere, Cindy and Leung, Lai-Yung R. and Suzuki-Parker, Asuka},
abstractNote = {Although the societal impact of a weather event increases with the rarity of the event, our current ability to assess extreme events and their impacts is limited by not only rarity but also by current model fidelity and a lack of understanding of the underlying physical processes. This challenge is driving fresh approaches to assess high-impact weather and climate. Recent lessons learned in modeling high-impact weather and climate are presented using the case of tropical cyclones as an illustrative example. Through examples using the Nested Regional Climate Model to dynamically downscale large-scale climate data the need to treat bias in the driving data is illustrated. Domain size, location, and resolution are also shown to be critical and should be guided by the need to: include relevant regional climate physical processes; resolve key impact parameters; and to accurately simulate the response to changes in external forcing. The notion of sufficient model resolution is introduced together with the added value in combining dynamical and statistical assessments to fill out the parent distribution of high-impact parameters. Finally, through the example of a tropical cyclone damage index, direct impact assessments are resented as powerful tools that distill complex datasets into concise statements on likely impact, and as highly effective communication devices.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-0954-6},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1177297},
journal = {Climatic Change, 129(3-4):381-395},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Sat Oct 19 00:00:00 EDT 2013},
month = {Sat Oct 19 00:00:00 EDT 2013}
}