Process for estimating likelihood and confidence in post detonation nuclear forensics.
Technical nuclear forensics (TNF) must provide answers to questions of concern to the broader community, including an estimate of uncertainty. There is significant uncertainty associated with post-detonation TNF. The uncertainty consists of a great deal of epistemic (state of knowledge) as well as aleatory (random) uncertainty, and many of the variables of interest are linguistic (words) and not numeric. We provide a process by which TNF experts can structure their process for answering questions and provide an estimate of uncertainty. The process uses belief and plausibility, fuzzy sets, and approximate reasoning.
- Publication Date:
- OSTI Identifier:
- Report Number(s):
- DOE Contract Number:
- Resource Type:
- Technical Report
- Research Org:
- Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Org:
- USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
Enter terms in the toolbar above to search the full text of this document for pages containing specific keywords.