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Title: Locked into Copenhagen pledges - Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals

Abstract

This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE intermodeling comparison with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Ten modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledges from the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements to 2030. Specific features compared to earlier assessments are the explicit consideration of near-term 2030 emissions targets as well as the systematic sensitivity analysis for the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Our estimates show that a 2030 mitigation effort comparable to the pledges would result in a further "lock-in" of the energy system into fossil fuels and thus impede the required energy transformation to reach low greenhouse-gas stabilization levels (450ppm CO2e). Major implications include significant increases in mitigation costs, increased risk that low stabilization targets become unattainable, and reduced chances of staying below the proposed temperature change target of 2C. With respect to technologies, we find that following the pledge pathways to 2030 would narrow policy choices, and increases the risks that some currently optional technologies, such as nuclear or carbon capture and storage (CCS), will become "a must" by 2030.

Authors:
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Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1170047
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-93395
KP1703030
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 90(Part A):8-23
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 90(Part A):8-23
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Riahi, Keywan, Kriegler, Elmar, Johnson, Nils, Bertram, Christoph, den Elzen, Michel, Eom, Jiyong, Schaeffer, Michiel, Edmonds, James A., Isaac, Morna, Krey, Volker, Longden, Thomas, Luderer, Gunnar, Mejean, Aurelie, McCollum, David, Mima, Silvana, Turton, Hal, Van Vuuren, Detlef, Wada, Kenichi, Bosetti, Valentina, Capros, Pantelis, Criqui, Patrick, Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem, Kainuma, M., and Edenhofer, Ottmar. Locked into Copenhagen pledges - Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.016.
Riahi, Keywan, Kriegler, Elmar, Johnson, Nils, Bertram, Christoph, den Elzen, Michel, Eom, Jiyong, Schaeffer, Michiel, Edmonds, James A., Isaac, Morna, Krey, Volker, Longden, Thomas, Luderer, Gunnar, Mejean, Aurelie, McCollum, David, Mima, Silvana, Turton, Hal, Van Vuuren, Detlef, Wada, Kenichi, Bosetti, Valentina, Capros, Pantelis, Criqui, Patrick, Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem, Kainuma, M., & Edenhofer, Ottmar. Locked into Copenhagen pledges - Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals. United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.016
Riahi, Keywan, Kriegler, Elmar, Johnson, Nils, Bertram, Christoph, den Elzen, Michel, Eom, Jiyong, Schaeffer, Michiel, Edmonds, James A., Isaac, Morna, Krey, Volker, Longden, Thomas, Luderer, Gunnar, Mejean, Aurelie, McCollum, David, Mima, Silvana, Turton, Hal, Van Vuuren, Detlef, Wada, Kenichi, Bosetti, Valentina, Capros, Pantelis, Criqui, Patrick, Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem, Kainuma, M., and Edenhofer, Ottmar. 2015. "Locked into Copenhagen pledges - Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals". United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.016.
@article{osti_1170047,
title = {Locked into Copenhagen pledges - Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals},
author = {Riahi, Keywan and Kriegler, Elmar and Johnson, Nils and Bertram, Christoph and den Elzen, Michel and Eom, Jiyong and Schaeffer, Michiel and Edmonds, James A. and Isaac, Morna and Krey, Volker and Longden, Thomas and Luderer, Gunnar and Mejean, Aurelie and McCollum, David and Mima, Silvana and Turton, Hal and Van Vuuren, Detlef and Wada, Kenichi and Bosetti, Valentina and Capros, Pantelis and Criqui, Patrick and Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem and Kainuma, M. and Edenhofer, Ottmar},
abstractNote = {This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE intermodeling comparison with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Ten modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledges from the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements to 2030. Specific features compared to earlier assessments are the explicit consideration of near-term 2030 emissions targets as well as the systematic sensitivity analysis for the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Our estimates show that a 2030 mitigation effort comparable to the pledges would result in a further "lock-in" of the energy system into fossil fuels and thus impede the required energy transformation to reach low greenhouse-gas stabilization levels (450ppm CO2e). Major implications include significant increases in mitigation costs, increased risk that low stabilization targets become unattainable, and reduced chances of staying below the proposed temperature change target of 2C. With respect to technologies, we find that following the pledge pathways to 2030 would narrow policy choices, and increases the risks that some currently optional technologies, such as nuclear or carbon capture and storage (CCS), will become "a must" by 2030.},
doi = {10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.016},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1170047}, journal = {Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 90(Part A):8-23},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2015},
month = {Thu Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2015}
}