An actuarial approach to retrofit savings in buildings
An actuarial method has been developed for determining energy savings from retrofits from energy use data for a number of buildings. This method should be contrasted with the traditional method of using pre- and post-retrofit data on the same building. This method supports the U.S. Department of Energy Building Performance Database of real building performance data and related tools that enable engineering and financial practitioners to evaluate retrofits. The actuarial approach derives, from the database, probability density functions (PDFs) for energy savings from retrofits by creating peer groups for the user’s pre post buildings. From the energy use distribution of the two groups, the savings PDF is derived. This provides the basis for engineering analysis as well as financial risk analysis leading to investment decisions. Several technical issues are addressed: The savings PDF is obtained from the pre- and post-PDF through a convolution. Smoothing using kernel density estimation is applied to make the PDF more realistic. The low data density problem can be mitigated through a neighborhood methodology. Correlations between pre and post buildings are addressed to improve the savings PDF. Sample size effects are addressed through the Kolmogorov--Smirnov tests and quantile-quantile plots.
- Research Organization:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- OSTI ID:
- 1159788
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-91271; BT0201000
- Journal Information:
- ASHRAE Transactions, 120(1):308-315, Journal Name: ASHRAE Transactions, 120(1):308-315
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Low-Risk and Cost-Effective Prior Savings Estimates for Large-Scale Energy Conservation Projects in Housing: Learning from the Fort Polk GHP Project
DEEP: A Database of Energy Efficiency Performance to Accelerate Energy Retrofitting of Commercial Buildings