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Title: An actuarial approach to retrofit savings in buildings

Abstract

An actuarial method has been developed for determining energy savings from retrofits from energy use data for a number of buildings. This method should be contrasted with the traditional method of using pre- and post-retrofit data on the same building. This method supports the U.S. Department of Energy Building Performance Database of real building performance data and related tools that enable engineering and financial practitioners to evaluate retrofits. The actuarial approach derives, from the database, probability density functions (PDFs) for energy savings from retrofits by creating peer groups for the user’s pre post buildings. From the energy use distribution of the two groups, the savings PDF is derived. This provides the basis for engineering analysis as well as financial risk analysis leading to investment decisions. Several technical issues are addressed: The savings PDF is obtained from the pre- and post-PDF through a convolution. Smoothing using kernel density estimation is applied to make the PDF more realistic. The low data density problem can be mitigated through a neighborhood methodology. Correlations between pre and post buildings are addressed to improve the savings PDF. Sample size effects are addressed through the Kolmogorov--Smirnov tests and quantile-quantile plots.

Authors:
; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1159788
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-91271
BT0201000
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
ASHRAE Transactions, 120(1):308-315
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: ASHRAE Transactions, 120(1):308-315
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Subbarao, Krishnappa, Etingov, Pavel V., and Reddy, T. A. An actuarial approach to retrofit savings in buildings. United States: N. p., 2014. Web.
Subbarao, Krishnappa, Etingov, Pavel V., & Reddy, T. A. An actuarial approach to retrofit savings in buildings. United States.
Subbarao, Krishnappa, Etingov, Pavel V., and Reddy, T. A. 2014. "An actuarial approach to retrofit savings in buildings". United States.
@article{osti_1159788,
title = {An actuarial approach to retrofit savings in buildings},
author = {Subbarao, Krishnappa and Etingov, Pavel V. and Reddy, T. A.},
abstractNote = {An actuarial method has been developed for determining energy savings from retrofits from energy use data for a number of buildings. This method should be contrasted with the traditional method of using pre- and post-retrofit data on the same building. This method supports the U.S. Department of Energy Building Performance Database of real building performance data and related tools that enable engineering and financial practitioners to evaluate retrofits. The actuarial approach derives, from the database, probability density functions (PDFs) for energy savings from retrofits by creating peer groups for the user’s pre post buildings. From the energy use distribution of the two groups, the savings PDF is derived. This provides the basis for engineering analysis as well as financial risk analysis leading to investment decisions. Several technical issues are addressed: The savings PDF is obtained from the pre- and post-PDF through a convolution. Smoothing using kernel density estimation is applied to make the PDF more realistic. The low data density problem can be mitigated through a neighborhood methodology. Correlations between pre and post buildings are addressed to improve the savings PDF. Sample size effects are addressed through the Kolmogorov--Smirnov tests and quantile-quantile plots.},
doi = {},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1159788}, journal = {ASHRAE Transactions, 120(1):308-315},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2014},
month = {Wed Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2014}
}