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Title: A new scenario framework for climate change research. Background, process, and future directions

The scientific community is developing new integrated global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes could pose to human and natural systems; how these could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce those risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; residual impacts under alternative pathways; and the relationship with sustainable development. This paper provides the background to, and process of, developing the conceptual framework for these scenarios, described in three other papers in this Special Issue (van Vuuren et al.; O'Neill et al.; Kriegler et al.). The paper also discusses research needs to further develop and apply this framework. The goal is to encourage climate change researchers from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines to work together to develop policy-relevant scenarios and explore the implications of different possible futures for the challenges and opportunities human and natural systems could face with increasing climate change.
 [1] ;  [2] ;  [3] ;  [4] ;  [5] ;  [6] ;  [7] ;  [8] ;  [9] ;  [10] ;  [11] ;  [12] ;  [7]
  1. ClimAdapt, LLC, Los Altos, CA (United States)
  2. World Bank, Washington, DC (United States)
  3. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Bilthoven (Netherlands)
  4. Walker Inst. for Climate System Research, Reading (United Kingdom)
  5. Finnish Environment Inst. (SYKE), Helsinki (Finland)
  6. Joint Global Change Research Inst., Baltimore, MD (United States)
  7. Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research (Germany)
  8. TERI, New Delhi (India)
  9. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
  10. International Inst. for Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria)
  11. Univ. of Cape Town (South Africa)
  12. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Bilthoven (Netherlands); Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Bilthoven (Netherlands)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
Report Number(s):
Journal ID: ISSN 0165-0009; KP1703030
DOE Contract Number:
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Climatic Change; Journal Volume: 122; Journal Issue: 3
Research Org:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
Country of Publication:
United States