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Title: Dynamics of the Coupled Human-climate System Resulting from Closed-loop Control of Solar Geoengineering

If solar radiation management (SRM) were ever implemented, feedback of the observed climate state might be used to adjust the radiative forcing of SRM, in order to compensate for uncertainty in either the forcing or the climate response; this would also compensate for unexpected changes in the system, e.g. a nonlinear change in climate sensitivity. This feedback creates an emergent coupled human-climate system, with entirely new dynamics. In addition to the intended response to greenhouse-gas induced changes, the use of feedback would also result in a geoengineering response to natural climate variability. We use a simple box-diffusion dynamic model to understand how changing feedback-control parameters and time delay affect the behavior of this coupled natural-human system, and verify these predictions using the HadCM3L general circulation model. In particular, some amplification of natural variability is unavoidable; any time delay (e.g., to average out natural variability, or due to decision-making) exacerbates this amplification, with oscillatory behavior possible if there is a desire for rapid correction (high feedback gain), but a delayed response needed for decision making. Conversely, the need for feedback to compensate for uncertainty, combined with a desire to avoid excessive amplification, results in a limit on how rapidly SRM couldmore » respond to uncertain changes.« less
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Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Climate Dynamics, 43(1-2):243-258
Research Org:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (US)
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Country of Publication:
United States
dynamics; coupled; human-climate; system; closed-loop; control; solar; geoengineering