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Title: Collaborative Research: Separating Forced and Unforced Decadal Predictability in Models and Observations

This report is a progress report of the accomplishments of the research grant “Collaborative Research: Separating Forced and Unforced Decadal Predictability in Models and Observa- tions” during the period 1 May 2011- 31 August 2013. This project is a collaborative one between Columbia University and George Mason University. George Mason University will submit a final technical report at the conclusion of their no-cost extension. The purpose of the proposed research is to identify unforced predictable components on decadal time scales, distinguish these components from forced predictable components, and to assess the reliability of model predictions of these components. Components of unforced decadal predictability will be isolated by maximizing the Average Predictability Time (APT) in long, multimodel control runs from state-of-the-art climate models. Components with decadal predictability have large APT, so maximizing APT ensures that components with decadal predictability will be detected. Optimal fingerprinting techniques, as used in detection and attribution analysis, will be used to separate variations due to natural and anthropogenic forcing from those due to unforced decadal predictability. This methodology will be applied to the decadal hindcasts generated by the CMIP5 project to assess the reliability of model projections. The question of whether anthropogenic forcing changes decadal predictability,more » or gives rise to new forms of decadal predictability, also will be investigated.« less
  1. Columbia University
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
Report Number(s):
DOE Contract Number:
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Research Org:
Columbia University
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE; USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
Country of Publication:
United States