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Title: Impacts of Climate Change and Vegetation Dynamics on Runoff in the Mountainous Region of the Haihe River Basin in the Past Five Decades

Climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration have changed significantly in the mountainous region of the Haihe River basin over the past five decades. In the study, a process-based terrestrial model, version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4), was used to quantify the spatiotemporal changes in runoff over the region, driven by the varying climate factors and CO2 concentration. Overall, our simulations suggest that climate-induced change in runoff in this region show a decreasing trend since 1960. Changes in precipitation, solar radiation, air temperature, and wind speed accounts for 56%, -14%, 13%, -5% of the overall decrease in annual runoff, respectively, but their relative contributions vary across the study area. Rising atmospheric CO2 concentration was found to have limited impacts on runoff. Significant decrease in runoff over the southern and northeastern portion of the region is primarily attributed to decreasing precipitation, while decreasing solar radiation and increasing air temperature are the main causes of slight runoff increase in the northern portion. Our results also suggest that the magnitude of decreasing trend could be greatly underestimated if the dynamical interactions of vegetation phenology with the environmental factors are not considered in the modeling, highlighting the importance of including dynamic vegetation phenology inmore » the prediction of runoff in this region.« less
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Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
Report Number(s):
47646; KP1703010
DOE Contract Number:
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Journal of Hydrology, 511:786-799
Research Org:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (US), Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL)
Sponsoring Org:
Country of Publication:
United States
climate; change; dynamic; vegetation; phenology; runoff; mountainous; Haihe; river; basin; Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory