Analyzing the Sensitivity of Hydrogen Vehicle Sales to Consumers' Preferences
- ORNL
- Iowa State University
The success of hydrogen vehicles will depend on consumer behavior as well as technology, energy prices and public policy. This study examines the sensitivity of the future market shares of hydrogen-powered vehicles to alternative assumptions about consumers preferences. The Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies model was used to project future market shares. The model has 1,458 market segments, differentiated by travel behavior, geography, and tolerance to risk, among other factors, and it estimates market shares for twenty advanced power-train technologies. The market potential of hydrogen vehicles is most sensitive to the improvement of drive train technology, especially cost reduction. The long-run market success of hydrogen vehicles is less sensitive to the price elasticity of vehicle choice, how consumers evaluate future fuel costs, the importance of fuel availability and limited driving range. The importance of these factors will likely be greater in the early years following initial commercialization of hydrogen vehicles.
- Research Organization:
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). National Transportation Research Center (NTRC)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
- DOE Contract Number:
- DE-AC05-00OR22725
- OSTI ID:
- 1122676
- Journal Information:
- International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, Vol. 38, Issue 36; ISSN 0360-3199
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Transportation Energy Futures Series: Non-Cost Barriers to Consumer Adoption of New Light-Duty Vehicle Technologies
Transportation Energy Futures Series. Non-Cost Barriers to Consumer Adoption of New Light-Duty Vehicle Technologies