Uncertainty analysis of multi-rate kinetics of uranium desorption from sediments
A multi-rate expression for uranyl [U(VI)] surface complexation reactions has been proposed to describe diffusion-limited U(VI) sorption/desorption in heterogeneous subsurface sediments. An important assumption in the rate expression is that its rate constants follow a certain type probability distribution. In this paper, a Bayes-based, Differential Evolution Markov Chain method was used to assess the distribution assumption and to analyze parameter and model structure uncertainties. U(VI) desorption from a contaminated sediment at the US Hanford 300 Area, Washington was used as an example for detail analysis. The results indicated that: 1) the rate constants in the multi-rate expression contain uneven uncertainties with slower rate constants having relative larger uncertainties; 2) the lognormal distribution is an effective assumption for the rate constants in the multi-rate model to simualte U(VI) desorption; 3) however, long-term prediction and its uncertainty may be significantly biased by the lognormal assumption for the smaller rate constants; and 4) both parameter and model structure uncertainties can affect the extrapolation of the multi-rate model with a larger uncertainty from the model structure. The results provide important insights into the factors contributing to the uncertainties of the multi-rate expression commonly used to describe the diffusion or mixing-limited sorption/desorption of both organic and inorganic contaminants in subsurface sediments.
- Research Organization:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Environmental Molecular Sciences Lab. (EMSL)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- OSTI ID:
- 1115808
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-88710; 42319; KP1702030
- Journal Information:
- Journal of Contaminant Hydrology, 156:1-15, Journal Name: Journal of Contaminant Hydrology, 156:1-15
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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