A Comparison of Forecast Error Generators for Modeling Wind and Load Uncertainty

Conference · Wed Dec 18 00:00:00 EST 2013

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1109/PESMG.2013.6672978· OSTI ID:1113598

Lu, Ning; Diao, Ruisheng; Hafen, Ryan P.; Samaan, Nader A.; Makarov, Yuri V.

This paper presents four algorithms to generate random forecast error time series, including a truncated-normal distribution model, a state-space based Markov model, a seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, and a stochastic-optimization based model. The error time series are used to create real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast time series that statistically match historically observed forecasting data sets, used for variable generation integration studies. A comparison is made using historical DA load forecast and actual load values to generate new sets of DA forecasts with similar stoical forecast error characteristics. This paper discusses and compares the capabilities of each algorithm to preserve the characteristics of the historical forecast data sets.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 1113598
• Report Number(s): PNNL-SA-92688; TE1101000
• Resource Relation: Conference: IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting (PES 2013), July21-25, 2013, Vancouver, BC, 1-5
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English