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Title: Near-Term Climate Mitigation by Short-Lived Forcers

Emissions reductions focused on anthropogenic climate forcing agents with relatively short atmospheric lifetimes such as methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) have been suggested as a strategy to reduce the rate of climate change over the next several decades. We find that reductions of methane and BC would likely have only a modest impact on near-term climate warming. Even with maximally feasible reductions phased in from 2015 to 2035, global mean temperatures in 2050 are reduced by 0.16 °C, with an uncertainty range of 0.04-0.36°C, with the high end of this range only possible if total historical aerosol forcing is small. More realistic mitigation scenarios would likely provide a smaller climate benefit. The climate benefits from targeted reductions in short-lived forcing agents are smaller than previously estimated and are not substantially different in magnitude from the benefits due to a comprehensive climate policy.
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Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110(35):14202-14206
Research Org:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (US)
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Country of Publication:
United States
Climate Change; Black Carbon; Methane; Mitigation