Energy use and CO2 emissions of China’s industrial sector from a global perspective
Abstract
The industrial sector has accounted for more than 50% of China’s final energy consumption in the past 30 years. Understanding the future emissions and emissions mitigation opportunities depends on proper characterization of the present-day industrial energy use, as well as industrial demand drivers and technological opportunities in the future. Traditionally, however, integrated assessment research has handled the industrial sector of China in a highly aggregate form. In this study, we develop a technologically detailed, service-oriented representation of 11 industrial subsectors in China, and analyze a suite of scenarios of future industrial demand growth. We find that, due to anticipated saturation of China’s per-capita demands of basic industrial goods, industrial energy demand and CO2 emissions approach a plateau between 2030 and 2040, then decrease gradually. Still, without emissions mitigation policies, the industrial sector remains heavily reliant on coal, and therefore emissions-intensive. With carbon prices, we observe some degree of industrial sector electrification, deployment of CCS at large industrial point sources of CO2 emissions at low carbon prices, an increase in the share of CHP systems at industrial facilities. These technological responses amount to reductions of industrial emissions (including indirect emission from electricity) are of 24% in 2050 and 66% in 2095.
- Authors:
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1088636
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-91359
600306000
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- Resource Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal Name:
- Energy Policy, 58:284-294
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Energy Policy, 58:284-294
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- China; industrial energy; emissions mitigation; integrated assessment
Citation Formats
Zhou, Sheng, Kyle, G. Page, Yu, Sha, Clarke, Leon E., Eom, Jiyong, Luckow, Patrick W., Chaturvedi, Vaibhav, Zhang, Xiliang, and Edmonds, James A. Energy use and CO2 emissions of China’s industrial sector from a global perspective. United States: N. p., 2013.
Web. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.03.014.
Zhou, Sheng, Kyle, G. Page, Yu, Sha, Clarke, Leon E., Eom, Jiyong, Luckow, Patrick W., Chaturvedi, Vaibhav, Zhang, Xiliang, & Edmonds, James A. Energy use and CO2 emissions of China’s industrial sector from a global perspective. United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.03.014
Zhou, Sheng, Kyle, G. Page, Yu, Sha, Clarke, Leon E., Eom, Jiyong, Luckow, Patrick W., Chaturvedi, Vaibhav, Zhang, Xiliang, and Edmonds, James A. 2013.
"Energy use and CO2 emissions of China’s industrial sector from a global perspective". United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.03.014.
@article{osti_1088636,
title = {Energy use and CO2 emissions of China’s industrial sector from a global perspective},
author = {Zhou, Sheng and Kyle, G. Page and Yu, Sha and Clarke, Leon E. and Eom, Jiyong and Luckow, Patrick W. and Chaturvedi, Vaibhav and Zhang, Xiliang and Edmonds, James A.},
abstractNote = {The industrial sector has accounted for more than 50% of China’s final energy consumption in the past 30 years. Understanding the future emissions and emissions mitigation opportunities depends on proper characterization of the present-day industrial energy use, as well as industrial demand drivers and technological opportunities in the future. Traditionally, however, integrated assessment research has handled the industrial sector of China in a highly aggregate form. In this study, we develop a technologically detailed, service-oriented representation of 11 industrial subsectors in China, and analyze a suite of scenarios of future industrial demand growth. We find that, due to anticipated saturation of China’s per-capita demands of basic industrial goods, industrial energy demand and CO2 emissions approach a plateau between 2030 and 2040, then decrease gradually. Still, without emissions mitigation policies, the industrial sector remains heavily reliant on coal, and therefore emissions-intensive. With carbon prices, we observe some degree of industrial sector electrification, deployment of CCS at large industrial point sources of CO2 emissions at low carbon prices, an increase in the share of CHP systems at industrial facilities. These technological responses amount to reductions of industrial emissions (including indirect emission from electricity) are of 24% in 2050 and 66% in 2095.},
doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2013.03.014},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1088636},
journal = {Energy Policy, 58:284-294},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Jul 10 00:00:00 EDT 2013},
month = {Wed Jul 10 00:00:00 EDT 2013}
}