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Title: Scenarios of Global Municipal Water-Use Demand Projections over the 21st Century

Abstract

This paper establishes three future projections of global municipal water use to the end of the 21st century: A reference business-as usual (BAU) scenario, a High Technological Improvement (High Tech) scenario and a Low Technological Improvement (Low Tech) scenario. A global municipal water demand model is constructed using global water use statistics at the country-scale, calibrated to the base year of 2005, and simulated to the end of the 21st century. Since the constructed water demand model hinges on socioeconomic variables (population, income), water price, and end-use technology and efficiency improvement rates, projections of those input variables are adopted to characterize the uncertainty in future water demand estimates. The water demand model is linked to the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a global change integrated assessment model. Under the reference scenario, the global total water withdrawal increases from 466 km3/year in 2005 to 941 km3/year in 2100,while withdrawals in the high and low tech scenarios are 321 km3/ year and 2000 km3/ year, respectively. This wide range (321-2000 km3/ year) indicates the level of uncertainty associated with such projections. The simulated global municipal demand projections are most sensitive to population and income projections, then to end-use technology and efficiency projections,more » and finally to water price. Thus, using water price alone as a policy measure to reduce municipal water use may substantiate the share of municipal water price of people’s annual incomes.« less

Authors:
; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1072854
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-85862
KP1703030
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58(3):1-20
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58(3):1-20
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
municipal water; domestic water; water demand; water price; technology; efficiency; climate policy; scenarios

Citation Formats

Hejazi, Mohamad I, Edmonds, James A, Chaturvedi, Vaibhav, Davies, Evan, and Eom, Jiyong. Scenarios of Global Municipal Water-Use Demand Projections over the 21st Century. United States: N. p., 2013. Web. doi:10.1080/02626667.2013.772301.
Hejazi, Mohamad I, Edmonds, James A, Chaturvedi, Vaibhav, Davies, Evan, & Eom, Jiyong. Scenarios of Global Municipal Water-Use Demand Projections over the 21st Century. United States. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.772301
Hejazi, Mohamad I, Edmonds, James A, Chaturvedi, Vaibhav, Davies, Evan, and Eom, Jiyong. 2013. "Scenarios of Global Municipal Water-Use Demand Projections over the 21st Century". United States. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.772301.
@article{osti_1072854,
title = {Scenarios of Global Municipal Water-Use Demand Projections over the 21st Century},
author = {Hejazi, Mohamad I and Edmonds, James A and Chaturvedi, Vaibhav and Davies, Evan and Eom, Jiyong},
abstractNote = {This paper establishes three future projections of global municipal water use to the end of the 21st century: A reference business-as usual (BAU) scenario, a High Technological Improvement (High Tech) scenario and a Low Technological Improvement (Low Tech) scenario. A global municipal water demand model is constructed using global water use statistics at the country-scale, calibrated to the base year of 2005, and simulated to the end of the 21st century. Since the constructed water demand model hinges on socioeconomic variables (population, income), water price, and end-use technology and efficiency improvement rates, projections of those input variables are adopted to characterize the uncertainty in future water demand estimates. The water demand model is linked to the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a global change integrated assessment model. Under the reference scenario, the global total water withdrawal increases from 466 km3/year in 2005 to 941 km3/year in 2100,while withdrawals in the high and low tech scenarios are 321 km3/ year and 2000 km3/ year, respectively. This wide range (321-2000 km3/ year) indicates the level of uncertainty associated with such projections. The simulated global municipal demand projections are most sensitive to population and income projections, then to end-use technology and efficiency projections, and finally to water price. Thus, using water price alone as a policy measure to reduce municipal water use may substantiate the share of municipal water price of people’s annual incomes.},
doi = {10.1080/02626667.2013.772301},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1072854}, journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58(3):1-20},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Mar 06 00:00:00 EST 2013},
month = {Wed Mar 06 00:00:00 EST 2013}
}