Ecological response surfaces nested in a process-based vegetation-water blance model to investigate species-level sensitivity to projected climatic chanage in the North American Central Grasslands
- Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States)
- USDA Forest Service, Corvallis, OR (United States)
Empirical ecological response surfaces were nested in MAPSS, a process-based vegetation-water balance model, to increase the taxonomic resolution of simulations of vegetation change under altered climates in the Central Grasslands. Response surfaces developed for dominant grass species predict the probability of dominance as a function of both climatic variables and variables derived by MAPSS. The former include indices of warmth and moisture more directly related to the response of plants than annual or monthly measures of temperature or precipitation commonly used in ecological response surface modeling. The MAPSS-derived predictor variables include evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and lifeform LAI. Under current climatic conditions, the response surfaces provide estimates of grass species dominance with a high degree of success. Much of the variation in the simulated probability of dominance is related to the species` individualistic response to regional gradients of temperature and moisture. The equilibrium response under different doubled-CO2 climatic scenarios suggests the potential for significant change in the distribution of species dominance consistent with biome-level change simulated by MAPSS.
- OSTI ID:
- 107121
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-9507129-; ISSN 0012-9623; TRN: 95:006512-0037
- Journal Information:
- Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America, Vol. 76, Issue 3; Conference: 80. anniversary of the transdisciplinary nature of ecology, Snowbird, UT (United States), 30 Jul - 3 Aug 1995; Other Information: PBD: Sep 1995
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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