Composite Multilinearity, Epistemic Uncertainty and Risk Achievement Worth

Borgonovo, E; Smith, C L

doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2012.05.008

Title: Composite Multilinearity, Epistemic Uncertainty and Risk Achievement Worth

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Abstract

Risk Achievement Worth is one of the most widely utilized importance measures. RAW is defined as the ratio of the risk metric value attained when a component has failed over the base case value of the risk metric. Traditionally, both the numerator and denominator are point estimates. Relevant literature has shown that inclusion of epistemic uncertainty i) induces notable variability in the point estimate ranking and ii) causes the expected value of the risk metric to differ from its nominal value. We obtain the conditions under which the equality holds between the nominal and expected values of a reliability risk metric. Among these conditions, separability and state-of-knowledge independence emerge. We then study how the presence of epistemic uncertainty aspects RAW and the associated ranking. We propose an extension of RAW (called ERAW) which allows one to obtain a ranking robust to epistemic uncertainty. We discuss the properties of ERAW and the conditions under which it coincides with RAW. We apply our findings to a probabilistic risk assessment model developed for the safety analysis of NASA lunar space missions.

Authors:: Borgonovo, E; Smith, C L

Publication Date:: Mon Oct 01 00:00:00 EDT 2012

Research Org.:: Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE

OSTI Identifier:: 1060424

Report Number(s):: INL/JOU-11-23781
Journal ID: ISSN 0377-2217

DOE Contract Number:: DE-AC07-05ID14517

Resource Type:: Journal Article

Journal Name:: European Journal of Operational Research

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Volume: 222; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 0377-2217

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING; epistemic; importance; RAW

Citation Formats


                    Borgonovo, E, and Smith, C L. Composite Multilinearity, Epistemic Uncertainty and Risk Achievement Worth.  United States: N. p., 2012. 
        Web.  doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2012.05.008.

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                    Borgonovo, E, & Smith, C L. Composite Multilinearity, Epistemic Uncertainty and Risk Achievement Worth.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2012.05.008

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                    Borgonovo, E, and Smith, C L. 2012.  
        "Composite Multilinearity, Epistemic Uncertainty and Risk Achievement Worth".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2012.05.008.

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@article{osti_1060424,

  title        = {Composite Multilinearity, Epistemic Uncertainty and Risk Achievement Worth},

  author       = {Borgonovo, E and Smith, C L},

  abstractNote = {Risk Achievement Worth is one of the most widely utilized importance measures. RAW is defined as the ratio of the risk metric value attained when a component has failed over the base case value of the risk metric. Traditionally, both the numerator and denominator are point estimates. Relevant literature has shown that inclusion of epistemic uncertainty i) induces notable variability in the point estimate ranking and ii) causes the expected value of the risk metric to differ from its nominal value. We obtain the conditions under which the equality holds between the nominal and expected values of a reliability risk metric. Among these conditions, separability and state-of-knowledge independence emerge. We then study how the presence of epistemic uncertainty aspects RAW and the associated ranking. We propose an extension of RAW (called ERAW) which allows one to obtain a ranking robust to epistemic uncertainty. We discuss the properties of ERAW and the conditions under which it coincides with RAW. We apply our findings to a probabilistic risk assessment model developed for the safety analysis of NASA lunar space missions.},

  doi          = {10.1016/j.ejor.2012.05.008},

  url          = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1060424},
  journal      = {European Journal of Operational Research},

  issn         = {0377-2217},

  number       = 2,

  volume       = 222,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Mon Oct 01 00:00:00 EDT 2012},

  month        = {Mon Oct 01 00:00:00 EDT 2012}

}

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