A structured approach to scenario development: Applications for demand-side management
- SRI International, Menlo Park, CA (United States)
Forecasting the evolution of issues that are driven by many factors in the business environment is a complex undertaking. This paper presents the underlying concept of the Hierarchical Influence Tracing System (HITS) for developing scenarios that describe the impacts and uncertainties of changes in the key factors in the business environment that affect such issues. HITS combines the principles of the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Influence Diagrams to develop a systematic framework for representing an individual`s understanding of the relations among various factors and their effects on the issue in question. In addition to providing a basis for the better understanding and modeling of reality, HITS is useful in facilitating communication about the perceptions of reality among different individuals and groups. Scenarios of future evolution of demand-side management developed by HITS are used as illustrative examples.
- Research Organization:
- Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Palo Alto, CA (United States); Pacific Consulting Services, Albany, CA (United States)
- OSTI ID:
- 103262
- Report Number(s):
- EPRI-TR-105012; CONF-930969-; TRN: 95:006490-0015
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: 9. electric utility forecasting symposium: forecasting and DSM - organizing for success, San Diego, CA (United States), 8-10 Sep 1993; Other Information: PBD: May 1995; Related Information: Is Part Of Ninth electric utility forecasting symposium: Proceedings. Forecasting and DSM -- Organizing for success; PB: 705 p.
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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